Obama's Swing State Trifecta - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Obama’s Swing State Trifecta

On the down side for McCain, Quinnipiac is out with large sample size polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, and Obama has a lead in all three states. Obama’s up by a large 52-40 margin in Pennsylvania, but Ohio is closer at 48-42, and Florida is 47-43. This is the first time in the poll that Obama has led in all three states.

In my view, any Obama lead in Florida, even at this early stage, is problematic for McCain, because it is a state that he should have in the bag.

Some more observations from the poll results:

–Obama has a large lead among women voters, while McCain has a slight lead among men. So much for the disgruntled Hillary voter backlash.

–McCain’s oldness is more of a problem than Obama’s blackness (though you could argue that people are more embarassed to tell pollsters that they wouldn’t vote for a black candidate).

–It seems that Obama may be able make up for any erosion of Jewish support in Florida with his near universal support among blacks. In the past, I’ve calculated that even if Obama wins a majority of the Jewish vote in Florida, if his percentage dropped to 60 percent from Kerry’s 80 percent, it could represent a swing toward McCain of 120,000 votes. However, this poll has Obama winning the black vote by a staggering 95-4 margin (as opposed to Kerry’s 86-13 advantage). Because there are more than double the number of black voters in Florida than Jewish voters, Obama’s improved performance among blacks would represent a swing of about 164,000 in his direction. Thus McCain may actually have to make headway among Jewish voters just to offset Obama’s gains among blacks.

–Slightly more people now favor staying in Iraq until it is stable than withdrawing immediately and having troops home within 18 months, but the economy has now become a much bigger issue, which is especially being driven by gas prices.

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