I just spent some time analyzing the results of the latest WSJ/NBC poll, and thought a few things were worth noting.
While Obama has enjoyed a post-nomination bounce, it’s more like the type of bounce you’d get from a rusty pogo stick that’s been sitting in the garage for ten years. Obama now leads McCain by 6 points, 47-41, which is just a three-point swing from the previous poll. To put this in better context, the public favors a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by a much higher 51-35 spread, so Obama is underperforming and McCain is outperforming.
Obama continues to have a problem with white males — McCain holds a 20-point lead among this group. On the other hand, Obama holds a 34-point lead among Hispanics, a group that he had trouble with during the primaries and that Bush made significant headway with in 2004. Obama also enjoys a 19-point lead among women — perhaps that’s another argument in favor of tapping Sarah Palin as a VP.
Some more notes:
–However, public attitudes on the Iraq War are trending in John McCain’s direction, as Americans favor withdrawing troops by the beginning of 2009 over remaining until the situation is stable by a mere 49 to 45 margin. As recently as this April, the margin was 55 to 40. So that’s an 11-point swing to McCain’s position in just two months.
–Despite all the talk about how unpopular Hillary Clinton is, Obama would stretch his lead over McCain to 9 points in a hypothetical Obama-Clinton vs. McCain-Romney ticket. My guess is that has to do more with Romney’s unpopularity than positive sentiment for Clinton.