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The Spectacle Blog
1. Mitt Romney’s biggest advantage is that he simply has a higher margin for error than his opponents. Losing South Carolina was a setback for Romney; it would have probably been fatal to Newt Gingrich’s candidacy. Florida is shaping up to be a similar situation: a loss would have been bad for Romney, but he might have been able to absorb it if his numbers held up in Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan. Gingrich can continue if he loses Florida, but with a much less obvious path to the nomination.
2. Going 1-for-3 in the early nominating contests so far, Romney has definitely underperformed. But I’ve always thought the best way to beat him was for the same non-Romney to win Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. It looks like each of those three states is going to wind up having a different winner.
3. Odd of Gingrich to opt for such a passive approach to the two Florida debates last week. Not only did being aggressive help him in previous debates, but he had the benefit of seeing how Romney’s prevent defense hurt him in South Carolina. If Gingrich’s sudden collapse in the Florida polls is validated by tomorrow’s primary results, expect that to be one of the decisions that is second-guessed.
4. Jonathan Adler asks why Romney hasn’t made more of an issue of the defects in Gingrich’s record. I think there are two reasons. Gingrich’s turn against many conservative initiatives after losing the government shutdown battle in 1996 and his advocacy of un-conservative positions after leaving Congress were mostly behind the scenes, while his fights on behalf of conservative principles were very public. Second, we’re talking about Mitt Romney: he has neither the credibility to attack Gingrich’s record nor the knowledge of where the bodies are buried.
Gingrich’s feints to the left have had some impact on the race, however. The former House speaker’s longtime advocacy of the individual mandate has definitely blunted his attacks on Romney’s chief weakness, Romneycare.
5. The idea behind Rick Santorum’s candidacy has been that Gingrich will eventually implode but large numbers of Republicans will continue to be resistant to a Romney nomination. When Gingrich won South Carolina, it looked like this theory would never be put to the test. After Florida, it may be.
6. The fact that Romney’s numbers fell so quickly after South Carolina and Gingrich’s have started falling once he got into trouble in Florida tells us that Republican opinion remains volatile. Neither candidate has closed to the deal.
View all comments (24) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/30/six-random-thoughts-on-the-pre
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martin j smith| 1.30.12 @ 9:11AM
Romney is just as bad a choice as McCain and if he were to be the nominee I would have to think long and hard to vote for him. So far he is campaigning just like Obama. Go negative because he has no positive.
Capt-Dax | 1.30.12 @ 9:13AM
My research SHOWS NO REPATRIATION OR NATURALIZATION of George Romney.
That does not mean there is none … it does however cast serious problems into the cogs of what appears to be a well oiled Mitt Romney campaign for President machine.
If George Romney was not a “U.S. citizen” or became naturalized BEFORE Mitt was born, then neither can Mitt Romeny (his son) be Natural Born.
So...Mitt Romney / Not Eligable to hold the office of {POTUS}.
Call upon Mitt Romney now to either post Gaskell Romney’s US naturaliztion documents (or repatriated record) or George Romney‘s US naturaliztion documents that he would have filled out and signed when he was 21 years of age, or withdraw from the presidential race as Constitutionally unqualified to take the oath of office of the presidency of the United States.
rightasrain| 1.30.12 @ 10:11AM
Oh please, Mitt will withdraw when obama withdraws.
John Navratil| 1.30.12 @ 10:58AM
Capt-Dax,
I Romney was born in the U.S. he is a natural born citizen. Read the 14th amendment. It spells out the two (2) ways to be a citizen. You are born into it or you are naturalized. Your parent's citizenship is not part of the test nor is it mentioned as a qualification for President.
Mender| 1.30.12 @ 9:22AM
Point 5 is dead right. Santorum does have a chance if the other two implode.
On the other hand, that was Jon Huntsman's plan and we all know how well that worked out.
gearjammer| 1.30.12 @ 9:44AM
Rinos rule, not LImbaugh !
rightasrain| 1.30.12 @ 10:08AM
While it's true that no candidate has sealed the deal thus far, out of the field of remaining candidates, most of whom are considered subpar, people are rightly focusing again on who is most electable--and that's Romney.
Occam's Tool| 1.30.12 @ 10:36AM
Please....Mitt is as American as apple pie, etc.
Clint| 1.30.12 @ 11:30AM
Tool Job's The Israel Firster,Who Said He'll Vote For The RINO-CINO Frontman,Mittens Romney.
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In Florida.
Mark| 1.30.12 @ 1:38PM
Clint, those folks might think they are setting us up for mittens, but they will be surprised when we stay home in droves because of how they are jamming mittens down our throat. They are counting on the total disdain for Obama so they can run their what was formerly called RINO. Well, we now know the Republican party in reality name and what they stand for are really connnected in CINO and they hate true conservatives. So adios Republicans. If it is Mitt, you will need to find a way to get your candidate to Mondale levels and he will take down everyone who supports him or who hides from supporting the candidates the conservatives back which is Newt and Santorum. We think Newt could have torn Obama apart and while possible will vote for him despite your trashing him. But you also hated Reagan as well so it is not a surpise.
Time to move on to a new party.
Dai Alanye | 1.30.12 @ 4:14PM
I demand that Clint use more "chickenhawk" epithets! They're outrageously effective.
Jake| 1.30.12 @ 1:21PM
Regarding # 3 .
Gingrich looks physically out of gas ,
he has no spring in his step.
His passive debate performances may have been a function of his poor conditioning and possible health issues
rather than a debate strategy.
Romney, Paul ,Santorum and Obama physically work their crowds while Gingrich stands on a platform and shakes hands , without much conversation ,
as people come to him.
Newt exerts little energy because he has little energy left to exert.
Bill| 1.30.12 @ 3:34PM
Gingrich is 68, and doing his best. Romney is on steroid. Obama is a "SON of A WHORE."
PattyMor| 1.30.12 @ 1:29PM
Jake, Newt is being slugged over the head and beaten down by millions of dollars of advertising. One of the most dishonest, is that Gingrich resigned in disgrace. He did not; he stepped down because they lost seats in the House.
Newt got punked in the debate; or Saul Alinkyed, if you will. He was thrown off because Romney lied.
Newt isn't perfect, but he's the only conservative that has the staying power to beat Romney. And he is the only Speaker in most of our LIFETIME to have balanced the budget.
Mark| 1.30.12 @ 1:41PM
Patty, if one read the text of the exchange between Romney and Santorum on RomneyCare, it is easy to see that Santorum pinned him to the matt. The CINO's came out to attack and protect their guy Romney. Well, they can have him. We vote in Ohio in March and it might be the last time I vote for a Republican and only to stop Romney. If Romney gets the nod, despite being fairly obvious that the majority wanted "someone else" and they shoved him down our throat, it will be lonely being a republican in the future.
Bill| 1.30.12 @ 3:37PM
Gingrich stepped down, not in disgrace, but on his own discretion.
-Orchestrated the 1994 GOP Revolt
-Balanced the budget 4 times
-Reformed the welfare
-Impeached Bill Clinton
The Dems were bitter during his tenure of speaker because Gingrich was a "rock-solid conservative."
Mark| 1.30.12 @ 1:43PM
I think we need to start looking at a "conservitive springtime" in the USA. It would unite all those who still care about America and the Constitution as written and small government.
Trinacria| 1.30.12 @ 2:32PM
Hope it works out better than the "Arab Spring"...
Regrettably, the prospects look rather dim at the moment.
OLDRAY| 1.30.12 @ 2:47PM
Another half baked anti-Newt article. It points out that Newt favored a couple items that are in Obamicare. Bad, But Romney is OK even though he emplaced almost a complete form of Obamneycare in Mass, What a rotten bunch the elite GOP are, Romney will sink the GOP if he is the candidate. Sarah Palin is once again correct.
Bill| 1.30.12 @ 2:49PM
Breaking News!
I'm predicting:
Gingrich Wins in FL! Romney is Sucked again! The "Great" South is no place for "New England moderate liberal RINO."
Dai Alanye | 1.30.12 @ 4:32PM
1. Romney’s edge is based almost entirely on swamping his opponents with money, an advantage that won’t hold against Obama’s deeper pockets.
2. Romney underperforms because he’s an inherently weak campaigner.
3. Gingrich has done well in debate when he is able to set up the moderator as a strawman. When the moderator fails to cooperate, as per Wolf Blitzer, Newt has his problems.
4. Romney isn’t a credible conservative, therefore cannot effectively attack Gingrich.
5. True. Florida might be Santorum’s big break.
6. No candidate has yet “closed the deal,” and won’t until we have one not-Romney left.
Butch| 1.30.12 @ 5:08PM
Agree with 6, Dai. Republican opinion is NOT volitile in one sense: two-thirds do not want Romney. We want a conservative.
PCP Smoker| 1.30.12 @ 9:47PM
Nonsense. A week of battering from the right by a guy who himself has never stood on the right can do a lot of damage. Stacy McCain quotes a floridian saying of Mittens, "I believe in him, he is a republican, and he's a good man." I think it's safe to assume that nothing Newt says will ever penetrate that head.
friv | 2.29.12 @ 1:35PM
I'm so tired and bored by these politics which just talk...and talk...and talk..and nothing after so many words!