In the coming weeks, Vladimir Putin will be throwing all he’s got against a stretch of high ground between the Russian occupied town of Bahkmut and the city of Kramatorsk to gain complete control of Ukraine’s Donbass region and score a decisive, if limited, victory over the government in Kyiv. At least two Russian divisions with close air support are relentlessly attacking Ukrainian fortifications in Chasiv Yar, a ridge town dominating the Siverskyi Donetsk river valley that contains an industrial triangle of cities serving as Ukraine’s logistical hub and forward headquarters.
American Abrams tanks to spearhead Ukrainian counterattacks were withdrawn from the front last week.
While most intelligence analysts speculated that Russia’s spring offensive would be directed at recapturing Kharkiv in the northern sector which threatens Russia’s own borders, or the strategic port of Odessa in the south, The American Spectator predicted that Putin would concentrate on Kramatorsk, after the capture of Avdiivka allowed his army to consolidate positions along the central sector of the front. (READ MORE from Martin Arostegui: Is Moldova Next on Putin’s List?)
Not only are Ukraine’s hastily improvised rear defenses in this area more vulnerable to Russian attack and flanking maneuvers supported by an unprecedented degree of air power, but the capture of eastern Ukraine’s industrial heartland would be a key strategic gain for Putin, allowing him to delineate a new Russian border on the Donetsk river as the starting point in any peace negotiations.
The 20 mile stretch between Chasiv Yar and the Sloviansk Donetsk river bed is where the Russo-Ukrainian war’s “Mother of all Battles” will play out and where the much delayed $61 billion in U.S. military aid may prove critical if it arrives in sufficient quantities during the coming days.
About 25,000 Russian troops pushing from bases in Bakhmut just 10 miles away, could link up with another two divisions, including elite Spetznaz battalions, advancing northwest from Avdiivka through an expanding salient that currently stretches to about 40 miles from Chasiv Yar. The force moving from Avdiivka might also open alternative routes into the industrial river valley, bypassing and surrounding Ukraine’s hill top stronghold.
Even as president Biden signed off on the $61B last week, his chief National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Russia was expected to “make more gains on the front lines in the coming months.” The commander of Ukraine’s armed forces General Syrskyi concurred that the situation was “worsening” as villages north west of Avdiivka and around Chasiv Yar fell to the advancing Russian columns.
Ukraine’s besieged troops in Chasiv Yar have been under the kind of constant bombardment by Su-34 fighter bombers delivering half ton, one ton, and even one-and-a half ton FAB glide bombs that broke their resistance in Avdiivka. The cheap and easily mass produced FABs are demolishing Ukraine’s trench lines erected hastily over recent months due to president Zelensky’s “counteroffensive” strategy that focused on retaking territory rather than digging in defensively. According to NATO analysts, Ukraine’s fortifications lack the depth and reinforced bunkers necessary to withstand the Russian bombardments.
“The explosion lit up the night sky, sending flames hundreds of feet into the air. Another huge blast followed, then a third. The bombs carried for miles across the fields east of Chasiv Yar and a few moments later a jet ripped through the sky” reads a Wall Street Journal front line report which says that Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold on long enough for fresh weapons to arrive from the U.S. One billion dollars worth of arms have been rushed from stocks prepositioned in Poland, according to the Pentagon. “Air defenses are the priority” a NATO official told The American Spectator.
Russia’s Air Force Getting Hit
Ukraine has downed 13 Su-34s in recent days which is a record number according to its defense ministry. Such a rate of attrition could seriously deplete Russia’s fleet of fourth generation twin seat fighter bombers with the sensors and guidance systems required for surgical FAB strikes. They are difficult to replace and additional losses could degrade air support for ground operations. (READ MORE: Russia Is Winning in Ukraine. The US Should Step Up.)
Multi purpose Su-35s with more advanced radar, maneuverability, and stealth features have a higher survival rate with only two losses reported in as many weeks. But they are primarily designed for air-to-air combat and as platforms for expensive cruise missiles that Russia uses against Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure. Russia will need its Su-35s to counter NATO supplied F-16 Falcons slated to start arriving in June.
American RIM-7 and AIM-9 missiles adaptable to Patriot batteries through the FrankenSAM system developed between the U.S. and Ukraine, are being delivered for the urgent replenishment of air defense batteries. The provision of standard and more effective Patriot MIM-104, PAC-2, and PAC-3 missiles may take months. NATO countries have them in limited number and need to produce a steady stream of replacements before supplying Ukraine from existing stocks. Large numbers of Stingers and other shoulder fired MANPADS are also arriving on the battlefield according to the Pentagon seeking to turn Ukraine’s front lines into virtual mine fields for Russian aircraft.
But NATO and Ukrainian war planners fear that perceptible improvements in Russia’s targeting intelligence aided by increasingly active spy rings inside Ukraine and enhanced EW capabilities enabling swarms of Russian drones to penetrate radar defenses, could disrupt the movement of U.S. weapons and threaten their storage sites. Missile strikes were directed last week against railway lines transporting newly arrived U.S. equipment to the front, according to the BBC.
As was also anticipated by The American Spectator, Russian missiles have taken out virtually all of Ukraine’s thermal power stations over the past two months. They have hit what were supposedly secret airfields deep in western Ukraine where F-16s would be based, and killed a group of special forces commanders meeting clandestinely in Odessa to plan raids on Crimea. The growing panic is such that a statement over Byelorussian radio by a Russian ex-KGB officer identifying a hospital in Kyiv where wounded Ukrainian soldiers are treated, caused its immediate evacuation.
Ukraine has been striking back with its own mass produced versions of Iranian Shahed 136 kamikaze drones that have damaged or destroyed more than 20 Russian oil refineries and hit several military air fields in recent weeks. The carefully planned strikes are directed by its intelligence service (SBU) which similarly counts with spy networks inside Russia, partisan teams operating in Crimea and CIA targeting information gathered by satellite and electronic listening stations close to the Russian border according to the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
ATACM missiles with ranges of up to 300 miles are included in the new U.S. package and the UK is sending 1,600 additional missiles including a large consignment of Storm Shadow cruise missiles which have already been used with great effect against Russian naval targets in Crimea. “Ukraine is set to increase long range attacks inside Russia in much stronger ways” said the chief of the British defense staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. “As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long range fight … its ability to continue deep operations will become a feature,” he told the Financial Times. Russia intercepted four ATACMS launched against Crimea on Monday.
Scenarios loom in which Ukraine’s military beset by equipment deficiencies and acute manpower shortages compensate for failures to stop Putin’s advance on Kramatorsk, by intensifying air attacks on Russian command posts and logistical centers in Russia, risking the dangerous consequences of an escalating missile exchange.
The U.S. may hope to condition Ukraine’s use of long range offensive weapons in a measured strategy to influence the Kremlin as Putin doubles down on high stakes military gambles globally.
Russia has announced that it is supplying Su-35s to Iran, enhancing the Ayatollahs’ capabilities to attack Israel while forming a confederation of pro Moscow dictatorships in Africa’s Sahel region that just expelled the U.S. from its base in Niger. It’s backing a genocidal warlord in Sudan to gain a base on the Red Sea where Western shipping is already partially blocked by Iran’s proxies in Yemen. The Kremlin is also expanding its footprint in central America where it’s taken over the training of Nicaragua’s security services as Venezuela flexes its muscles in the Caribbean. (READ MORE: Ukraine and Russia Battle for Avdiivka)
Biden’s incapacity to exercise the necessary leadership to secure early Republican support for Ukraine’s aid package has allowed Putin the space in which to further his territorial goals and boost his world standing. It was speaker Mike Johnson who had to defy the isolationist wing of his party to pass the aid bill, without the concessions on U.S. border policy demanded by conservatives. Johnson’s statesmanship may yet prevent Ukraine from being overrun by Russia. But plans to recover lost territory are shelved. American Abrams tanks to spearhead Ukrainian counterattacks were withdrawn from the front last week, after five were hit by expanding Russian drone strikes.
