The Russians have taken Avdiivka, and President Joe Biden faces a tough choice: he either closes the Mexican border or loses Ukraine. The $61 billion supplemental aid package for Ukraine, which may be the minimum required to block further Russian advances, remains held up by Congress, which is unlikely to pass it anytime soon unless the administration returns to the tough border policies of former President Donald Trump. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson responded to Democrat machinations to force a vote last week by putting the House of Representatives in recess.
If Ukraine does not get the aid needed to replenish seriously depleted ammunition stocks soon, there won’t be sufficient artillery or air defense ammunition to contain further Russian moves. According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), intense air strikes by Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter aircraft supporting ground forces in Avdiivka proved crucial in Russia’s victory. (READ MORE: Putting America First Means Standing Up to Bullies)
“The Russian ability to conduct these mass strikes for several days in the most active part of the frontline suggests that Ukrainian forces were not able to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka…. Delays in Western security assistance may lead to further significant constraints on Ukrainian air defenses that could allow Russian forces to replicate the close air support that facilitated Russian advances in Avdiivka at scale in Ukraine,” ISW reported.
Glide bombs with half-ton warheads dropped by the Sukhois on a coke plant serving as a Ukranian fortress, decided Ukraine’s newly appointed army commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, on sounding the retreat. He had personally led the crack 3rd Assault Brigade equipped with American Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles to reinforce Avdiivka, but when air strikes triggered a chemical fire in the coke plant, releasing a toxic cloud, he realized the situation was hopeless.
Despite his reputed indifference to casualties, Syrsky pulled out the troops to “preserve their lives and health,” according to the official statement. His two or three brigades, including exhausted units who had held out in Avdiivka for four months, were facing seven Russian brigades encircling the city.
The capture of Avdiivka, which cost Russia over 20,000 casualties and thousands of destroyed tanks, combat vehicles, and artillery pieces, solidified the vital central front in Donetsk. Despite the city’s small size (its original population numbered 30,000), it presented a major obstacle to Putin’s plans to dominate the Donbas region. The town controls a railway and threatened Russia’s hold on nearby Bahkmut, a city similarly captured by Russia last spring following an 8-month siege and 25,000 casualties. (READ MORE: The Stable Path: Two Years of Ukraine’s Fight for Survival)
With its central front consolidated, Russia can start moving towards Kramatorsk, the industrial heart of Donbas, which Su-34s started bombing following Avdiivka’s fall last week. With a population of 100,000, modern steel plants, vast iron mines, gas fields, and sophisticated engineering facilities, the control of Kramatorsk is a key prize that Putin would need to secure in any future negotiations to partition Ukraine, which now seems all but inevitable.
Russia is also intensifying attacks in Zaporizhzhia to dislodge the Ukranians from Robotyne, which they captured in a failed counteroffensive to penetrate Russia’s southern defensive lines last summer. Russian attacks are also underway in the northern sector of Kupiansk and various other points along the 1,000-mile front where Putin is reported to be massing a half million troops for an all-out offensive following the Russian elections when he will be free to induct hundreds of thousands more men into the army.
Europeans are scrambling to get weapons to Ukraine. As Avdiivka fell, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky flew to Paris and Berlin to plead for arms. Expressing fears about a possible collapse of the Ukrainian army, the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, called on member states to ship weapons “immediately”.
Half a million of badly needed 155 artillery rounds are on the way, according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who has called for the creation of a “defense post” to coordinate assistance. But it’s only half the quantity promised by Germany a year ago and there are serious doubts that Europe can match Russia’s output of over 100,000 rounds per month anytime soon. Russia is also receiving munitions from North Korea and Iran, prompting European defense officials to approach South Korea for help.
Ukraine’s NASAM air defense missiles, being replenished by Norway, and IRIS-T systems, being supplied by Germany, lack the necessary speed and range to intercept Russia’s hypersonic missiles, which can only be stopped by American Patriot missiles that run out next month according to U.S. estimates. It could present the the window of opportunity for Putin to unleash his full arsenal of Kh-22s, Kh-59s, and other missiles to knock out Ukraine’s energy and industrial infrastructure, according to former Royal United Services Institute director, Michael Clarke.
Although Europe is waking up to the threat posed by Russia and several countries are ramping up defense spending past the 2 percent of GDP that Donald Trump demanded, they are hardly in shape to take on Russia. The UK, for example, which has been the most vociferous backer of Ukraine, lacks sailors to crew its ships, and its new aircraft carrier can’t be put to sea. (READ MORE from Martin Arostegui: Ukraine and Russia Battle for Avdiivka)
American Democrats and the media will blame “Republican Trump Supporters” if Ukraine is eventually overrun or forced to negotiate a humiliating peace with Russia. Indications of such an outcome were evident at the international Munich Conference last week where China’s foreign minister dismissed direct appeals by Ukraine’s foreign minister to broker talks, on the basis that “conditions in Ukraine are not yet conducive to negotiations,” which some analysts interpret as meaning that Putin remains short of his territorial goals.
The Biden administration bears overriding responsibility for any tragic outcome of the Ukraine conflict. Its obscene withdrawal from Afghanistan encouraged Putin to test Western resolve. Its green energy policies locked European allies into a dependence on Russian oil and gas which they still can’t shake off, despite sanctions, and the billiard effect of its open borders policy now threatens to sink Kyiv.
As Harry Truman said, “The buck stops here” and when a president embarks on a high-stakes military enterprise that can alter the world balance of power, he must be prepared to sacrifice whatever is necessary for a successful outcome. What is necessary in this case is to reverse a border policy opposed by the vast majority of Americans to marshal the political support to halt Russia. Is Biden capable of being a statesman or is he destined to remain a party machine politician beholden to a cabal of billionaire donors and far-left apparatchiks?
