After McCain - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
After McCain

Although I think it’s too early to be having this discussion, John Hood has kicked things off over at the Corner with what I believe to be a wrong-headed analysis of a post-McCain field:

I think the big winner is Fred Thompson, with Mitt Romney gaining a little, too and Rudy Giuliani losing (he has always needed a large field to maintain his footing in a race where he is the odd man out ideologically).

What Hood neglects is that McCain is currently pulling moderates and independents, as well as national security voters, that may otherwise vote for Giuliani (this would be especially significant in New Hampshire), so I think Rudy actually stands to gain by an early McCain exit. And in the one poll we have with McCain out of the race, a Quinnipiac poll conducted in Florida, Ohio, and Pennslyvania–Giuliani benefits the most. In Florida (which I bring up because Hood singled it out), in the event of a McCain exit, Rudy picks up 6 points, Thompson picks up 1 point, and Romney remains the same.

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