In an ordinary midterm congressional election, the usual outcome is that the President’s party loses seats in the House of Representatives. If history repeats itself in November, the Democrats may well flip enough seats to overcome the razor thin Republican majority and take control of the House. But there is reason to believe that the GOP will defy history in the upcoming midterms because it won the 2025-2026 “redistricting war,” the struggle between red and blue states to gain an edge by engaging in mid-decade redrawing of their congressional districts. After that “long twilight struggle,” Republican states appear to have outperformed Democrat states and should net about ten new House seats.
Will it be enough to fend off the Democrats in the midterms? Can they defy history? It depends on how unhappy the voters are with the economy and how scary the Democrats seem in the fall.
Overall, eight states redrew their House maps in favor of Republicans, while only two states managed to redraw their maps in favor of Democrats. The Republicans began their redistricting effort better positioned to prevail because they controlled more state governments than did the Democrats. According to Ballotpedia, there are currently 23 states in which the GOP controls the governorship and both houses of the legislature compared to only 16 states in which the Democrats wield such control. Moreover, many Democrat states had already gerrymandered their maps before the mid-decade spate of redistricting began last year leaving little room for additional redistricting. The following GOP states expanded their House maps:
Texas: The Lone Star State began the mid-decade “redistricting wars” in 2025 by redrawing a new congressional map that could net the Republicans as many as five additional seats. This was inevitably challenged by the Democrats in court but that effort collapsed on December 4, 2025, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling allowing Texas to use its new map for the 2026 elections. This may give the Republicans control of 30 of the state’s 38 districts.
Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced last January that he would call a special legislative session in April on congressional redistricting. His new map was approved, but it was inevitably challenged in court by the Democrats. The Florida Supreme Court rejected the challenges in a 6-1 vote. Florida’s previous congressional delegation has a 20-8 edge favoring the GOP. The new map could very well net the GOP as many as 4 additional seats.
Ohio: The Buckeye State was required to redraw its House districts in 2025 because the map used in 2022 and 2024 failed to garner the legislative support needed for a full 10-year term. The new map was unanimously passed in October of 2025 by the Ohio Redistricting Commission. At present, the Republicans hold 10 of Ohio’s 15 congressional districts. The new map should net the Republicans 2 more congressional seats totaling 12 of the state’s 15 districts.
North Carolina: The Tar Heel State adopted a new map in October 2025 that strengthened the Republican advantage in the state. The GOP is expected to net two additional seats, increasing the party’s advantage in the state from a 10-4 Republican advantage to 12-2. Naturally, this map faced a legal challenge from the Democrats, but a federal appeals court ruled in late November that North Carolina could use the redrawn congressional map in the 2026 midterms.
Missouri: The Show-Me State redistricted its map in September 2025 and it should increase the 6-2 Republican advantage by adding at least one more GOP seat. Democrat opponents of the new map filed three lawsuits and called for a referendum on the new map. However, the Missouri Supreme Court rejected all three of the challenges to the state’s new congressional map, clearing the way to use the legislature’s new map in the midterm elections.
Alabama: The Supreme Court cleared the way for Alabama to use a new map favored by Republicans, who hope to net one seat. Alabama has 7 House districts. The old Alabama map had two majority-minority districts, but the Court ruled that racially-gerrymandered districts violate the Voting Rights Act. Thus, Alabama can replace its current map for one that has only a single such district. This will probably net Republicans an additional House district.
Louisiana: The same Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act invalidated Louisiana’s congressional map, requiring the state to come up with a new one. In late May, the governor signed into law a new map that could give Republicans one more seat. As with Alabama, the SCOTUS ruling required the state to fix its racial-gerrymandering problem. Republicans currently hold four of Louisiana’s six House seats. They will net one new GOP seat.
Tennessee: The Supreme Court ruling also affected Tennessee. The Republican supermajority in the state legislature quickly passed a new congressional map in early May. Like Alabama and Louisiana, Tennessee is required to eliminate a racially-gerrymandered district. And, in a sublime example of poetic justice, this will very likely unseat a white Democrat male — Steve Cohen — and replace him with a Black female Republican — Charlotte Bergmann,
All of this redistricting activity could well increase the number of Republican-controlled seats in the House of Representatives by as many as 10 seats. Meanwhile, the Democrats not only control fewer states, they have already exhausted most of their redistricting opportunities by drastically redrawing their maps after the results of the 2020 census were released. Seven of the Democrat-controlled states have no Republican districts and very few of the remaining nine have any chance of gaining seats. Virginia attempted to pull a fast one (literally) on its voters and its Supreme Court shot that down. All the Democrats have left is 5 potential gains in California and one in Utah of all places. In other words the Republicans won the redistricting wars.
Will it be enough to fend off the Democrats in the midterms? Can they defy history? It depends on how unhappy the voters are with the economy and how scary the Democrats seem in the fall. The recent New York primaries suggest that the latter are in the midst of an internecine battle between the center-left and the crazy left. But most voters don’t care. They want the price of gasoline to go down and they are tired of walking out of the grocery store with empty pockets. So, all of the recent sound and fury over gerrymandering could well signify nothing.
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