From the NY Times:
Andrew Kohut, the president of the
Pew Center, said the poll nonetheless found that Republicans were becoming more enthusiastic as Election Day approached, a sign that the party was making progress in addressing one of its main problems this year: a dispirited base…
Ken Mehlman, the Republican chairman, said polls showed that Republicans and conservatives “were coming home,” which he said “is what happens when voters focus on the choice before them.”
Perhaps this is evidence of the phenomenon we were discussing last week. Over the course of the campaign season, conservatives took out their frustration with the Republican Party on pollsters, but now that the election is actually upon us, they're ready to turn out for Republican candidates. Even if evidence of this late break is true, though, I still think it's going to be difficult for Republicans to hang onto the House–15 seats just isn't that many in an election year like this one. However, conservatives "coming home" in big numbers means that Republicans would keep the Senate and Democratic gains in the House would be contained. So, instead of the 30-40 seats that some are predicting, Democratic gains may be more like 20 seats.
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