Robert Kagan has a thoughtful piece in today’s Washington Post arguing that whether or not Democrats win, the U.S. probably won’t withdraw from Iraq or back off from international entanglements in general. Among the points he makes:
Indeed, the preferred European scenario — “Bush hobbled” — is less likely than the alternative: “Bush unbound.” Neither the president nor his vice president is running for office in 2008. That is what usually prevents high-stakes foreign policy moves in the last two years of a president’s term.
I have always taken that into account when considering whether or not the U.S. would take military action against Iran. Under the circumstances that Kagan lays out, it’s possible that with nothing to lose in 2008, President Bush would authorize air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.