Election Arithmetic - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Election Arithmetic

Each day, it becomes more difficult to see how Republicans can maintain the House. Democrats only need 15 seats to win control, and with the seats of Delay, Ney and Foley almost certainly lost, it’s really more like 12 seats. On top of this, Curt Weldon, whose seat was already considered a toss-up in his Democratic-leaning district, is now under investigation. Even if you question the timing of the investigation, clearly it’s going to be an uphill battle for him.

Cook Political Report has identified two more Republican open seats as likely Democratic pickups (Kolbe’s in Arizona and Beauprez’s in Colorado) and classifies 23 additional Republican seats as toss-ups. If you write off the seats of Delay, Ney and Foley, it means that Democrats can gain control of Congress by winning a little more than half of the toss-ups. If you consider the seats of Weldon, Kolbe and Beauprez to be lost, then it means that Democrats can take over the House even if they were only to win 9 of those 23 remaining toss-up seats. Sure, anything can happen in the next few weeks, but mathematically speaking, things are looking pretty bleak for Republicans.

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