1. Tehran believes that the US national security apparatus cannot deal with a foreign crisis in an election year.
2. Tehran believes that the US will exit Iraq with its tail tucked.
3. Tehran believes that the US will not fight for Israeli sovereignty in the territories.
4. Tehran believes that the Ahmadinejad regime can ride out the blitz in its bunkers and emerge the winner when the UN or the Vatican or Russia brokers a ceasefire.
5. Tehran believes that the Bush Administration has lost its ability to rally the US’s traditional allies.
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