Security council source reports that this news cycle is critical first round of discussions between five permanent members with regard the Iran confrontation. Britain and France are on course to ask for an IAEA report of noncompliance. China is silent. Russia asks for a report in 18 months.
Iran believes it can split the five with long term oil contracts and back room promises. The US is now the prince of multi-lateralism. Keeping Britain and France together, keeping Russia moving without a “no,” keeping China silent, is far-fetched but possible.
There is no visible solution. Those who speak breezily of a diplomatic solution have not read the 1945 UN Charter. Chapter Seven, article 42, looms, a collective action of air, sea, land forces for demonstrations, blockades and interventions to be launched by a vote of the Security Council, with full compliance by five perms. The vote is binding. Getting to the vote will be a struggle, but the vote is the trigger. Jaw jaw leads to war war. Iron tongues followed by iron weapons.
Source says Iran welcomes the confrontation. Source says that Iran will watch the five perms talk, and if there is an indication of collectivity, Iran will act to provoke the US or Israel in order to split the five.
Iran is not a rational actor. It is a messianic state. It will shatter the Security Council with falsehoods and cash and intrigue.
When and if the Security Council breaks down, the US is left to defend itself. Iran knows this.
Iran is planning for the necessity of preempt with a surrogate attack on Israel, or with a staged incident over itsnational sovereignty (airspace, coastal waters) is a credible and effective scenario. Iran knows that the Bush Admin has low approval rate with the American public because of Iran’s black hand in Iraq and because of plain clumsy over promising by the White House. Iran knows that a darting attack on a US target, or on a US ally, that is not answered in kind, will confirm Iran’s ascendancy. Meantime, the oil weapon is the flame turned up on the frogs.
Consider this a war warning, 2. The UN is near to joining the League of Nations, ashes. We are in the final days of global trust. Iran is consistent and extremely confident. Repeat, it is not a rational actor. It cannot and will not climb down.
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