Re: Early States | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Re: Early States
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The intent was not to cherry pick but just to examine polls which came out on Friday. Yes, NH remains the strongest possible opportunity for Romney but it is inescapable that his substantial double digit lead in Iowa has disappeared and the momentum is with Huckabee.( This chart dramatically illustrates what is going on.) I think local press coverage, some of which I pointed out earlier and which readers can get a sense of from the Des Moines Register, is engaged in some Huckabee/underdog rooting. The latest SC poll does show a drop for him in SC; whether this will be duplicated in other polls will get played out in the next few weeks. In another Southern state, Alabama, this poll (taken earlier in the month but released yesterday) does not have a GOP primary line up but in head to heads with Democrats McCain beats Hillary by 10 pts, Rudy wins by 5 pts and Romney is tied. What remains an open question — the one commentators and the campaigns have been arguing about — is how a Huckabee win or near win in Iowa would do for his and Romney’s numbers in the states which follow. The domino/momentum effect coupled with the very volatile nature of the race should be kept in mind when looking at all of these polls, many of which have small samples and large margins of error.

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