As president, Donald Trump oversaw a number of excellent policies — but, despite those strengths, he will harm conservatives and Republicans if he wins the nomination in 2024. Constitutionally term limited, Trump would be a lame-duck president from day one, with all the limitations that come with that status. To secure success in 2024 and 2028, Republicans must unite behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
If Trump wins the Republican nomination and then happens to win the general election, he will be term limited. The 22nd Amendment would prevent him from running again in 2028, just when it will be time to nominate new Supreme Court justices, fix our federal budget, and adopt meaningful conservative policies. (READ MORE: Tim Scott Is Running for Vice President — But Whose?)
Trump’s term limit would hinder the GOP’s efforts to win the presidency in 2028, curb his power this term, and constrain the GOP’s ability to project strength down ballot.
Incumbency is formidable. It can prop up weak incumbents and scare off possible challengers, who will choose to simply wait until the next open seat to run for election. Since 1948, 12 incumbent presidents have run for reelection. Eight of them — 67 percent — won reelection. Those are some pretty good odds.
Incumbent presidents tend to run stronger campaigns and earn larger vote shares than candidates in open races. Since 1948, incumbent presidents running for reelection won, on average, 10.8 points more of the popular vote than their challengers. In open seats, with no incumbent president running, the winning candidate earned, on average, only 3.4 points more of the popular vote. It’s good to be an incumbent. (RELATED: The Case for Ron DeSantis)
Troublingly, two of the last five open-seat elections that Republicans won saw the GOP candidate earn fewer popular-vote margins than his Democratic opponent. Sure, the popular vote isn’t what really counts, but who wants to defend another popular-vote loser but Electoral College winner? Who wants to win by the skin of their teeth?
It would benefit the GOP to win in 2024 and set itself up for another victory in 2028. A Trump nomination (and general-election win) needlessly takes away that advantage.
What’s more, if Trump wins in 2024, his lame-duck status would limit his ability to score policy wins in Congress. White House Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman once told President Richard Nixon: “You’ve got the power now, don’t listen to anyone else. Your power is going to start eroding from January 20th on.” He was right.
Lame-duck presidents have less ability to project strength in Congress. Reelection-seeking members of Congress often break with presidents who are viewed as weak or sunsetting. Even first-term presidents lose some of their power after their honeymoons are over. Second-term presidents are considerably more limited, especially after the midterms, at which point they can accomplish little of any significance. Trump would have a hard time accomplishing much in his second term and would see next to nothing done in his last two years. All this is to say that a Trump victory would be short-lived — two years of limited influence at best.
Trump would still have social media and his uncanny ability to pressure Republicans, but his power would be lessened. That diminished status would allow Republicans to break ranks with him over critical votes. And the conservative position would diminish.
We don’t need Trump to be the nominee to win in 2024, for DeSantis and Scott are better general-election candidates. The image of a young, vibrant Republican next to an aged and doddering Joe Biden is too powerful for even the left-wing media to hide. Imagine DeSantis or Scott standing next to Biden. Game over. A Trump candidacy robs the GOP of this obvious contrast.
Down ballot, other candidates would build the party. But the data show that Trump would cause damage to the Republican brand name.
Republicans have a golden opportunity going into this election, but our success depends on nominating the right candidate in 2024. Thus, we should unite behind Ron DeSantis or Tim Scott, not Trump.
Win now and win again in 2028.
Ryan J. Owens is the George C. and Carmella P. Edwards Professor of American Politics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
