At some point, war usually reaches a condition of stasis.
Yes, shots are exchanged, troops moved, offensives begun and ended with varying success, but when it comes down to it, not much changes as months stretch into years and the war becomes an exercise in military endurance. (READ MORE: Israel Must Finish the Job in Gaza)
The war in Israel is a volatile situation that seems ready to expand at any moment. And while it’s likely to eventually reach some kind of stasis, the question remains: How big will it get before it does? If Iran has anything to say about it, the answer is: “very.”
Over the weekend, the Israel–Hamas ceasefire came to an end after Hamas fired a rocket into the country, violating the terms of the agreement.
On Sunday morning, just two days later, a British merchant ship in the Red Sea issued a distress signal to a nearby U.S. destroyer, the USS Carney. The commercial liner had been hit by a ballistic missile. Over the next five hours, the USS Carney hurried to respond to attacks against a total of three commercial ships, shooting down three drones.
Today, there were four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea. These three vessels are connected to 14 separate nations. The Arleigh-Burke Class destroyer USS CARNEY responded to the distress calls from the…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) December 3, 2023
The attack shouldn’t have been a surprise — U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East have been shooting down drones and missiles headed in their direction for months. In October, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin gave a number of troops “prepare-to-deploy” orders, apparently in preparation for a possible escalation. On Sunday, VOA News reported that, since October, “Iranian-backed militias have conducted drone and rocket attacks against the 2,500 American troops based in Iraq and the 900 troops based in Syria.” The U.S. military has, for the most part, seemed to simply brush off the attacks — but this one might be different. (READ MORE: Nearly 15 Years Later, Thoughts on Gaza Still Ring True)
U.S. Central Command called the attack “a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” adding, “We have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran.”
It’s not as though the Houthis are randomly shooting ballistic missiles given to them by Iran into the sky hoping to cause some damage. As far as they are concerned, they’re waging war against Israel alongside Hamas. On Nov. 1, Reuters reported that the group had launched what they called a “large number” of missiles and rockets at Israel — despite being located more than 1,000 miles away.
The objective for Sunday’s attack was the same. Houthis spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree issued a statement taking responsibility for a missile strike and a drone strike. “The Yemeni armed forces continue to prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Red Sea (and Gulf of Aden) until the Israeli aggression against our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip stops,” the statement said, according to the Associated Press. “The Yemeni armed forces renew their warning to all Israeli ships or those associated with Israelis that they will become a legitimate target if they violate what is stated in this statement.”
The U.S. Central Command promised to “consider all appropriate responses” in a post on X — although ABC News admitted that there has been no indication that the Pentagon has any plans to do anything in retaliation — while specifically calling out Iran for backing the militant group. Part of the problem is that Iran is not supposed to be providing any backing to the Houthis. Earlier this year, it signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia that not only opened up diplomatic relations between the two countries but also did so on the condition that Iran stop supplying weapons to the militants.
But as far as Iran is concerned, it’s all par for the course. CNN reported a month ago that Iran was responsible for backing militant groups that carried out 38 attacks against the U.S. troops in the Middle East between Oct. 17 and Nov. 6, noting that “while Tehran may not be explicitly directing the groups’ attacks, it does appear to be encouraging them.” (READ MORE: Israel Lost the Initiative)
The U.S.’s strategic objective has — up to this point — been to contain the war between Israel and Hamas and to support Israel in protecting itself. Iran’s goal, according to senior defense officials, is to force the U.S. to back out of the Middle East entirely. The militants’ goal — by their admission — is to continue to fight alongside Hamas against Israel.
Those objectives won’t meld together, and, as is usually the case with war, not everyone is going to get what they want. The question the U.S. military should be asking itself is: What is in the U.S.’s best interest? And it should answer that question before Americans get killed.
