In 1968, President Lyndon Baines Johnson was saddled with poor approval ratings and a fraying Democratic coalition. Democratic Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota approached such prominent figures as George McGovern and Robert F. Kennedy (no, not that one) in search of someone to challenge the incumbent president for his party’s nomination, but, when no one was willing, he put himself forward. Johnson, who in his hubris did not even appear on the New Hampshire ballot, shockingly only defeated McCarthy in that year’s Democratic primary 50 percent to 42 percent. Though he prevailed off write-in votes, Johnson’s reelection campaign was fatally mauled. He would drop out before the end of the month.
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Could history be repeating itself 56 years later? Minnesota Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips, who is challenging President Joe Biden for his party’s nomination, likely hopes so. And he may have some reason for optimism.
For the Democrats, this year’s New Hampshire primary doesn’t matter, in strictly technical terms. The Democratic National Committee officially dethroned New Hampshire as its party’s first primary state, instead opting for South Carolina on Feb. 3. But the Granite State has elected to ignore the DNC’s rules and hold its primary as previously scheduled. As a result, the DNC has said it will not seat any New Hampshire delegates and will apply penalties to any candidates who appear on the ballot or otherwise campaign in that state.
Biden, in keeping with the DNC rules, is neither campaigning in New Hampshire nor on the Jan. 23 primary ballot. Even so, supporters of Biden are, without his involvement or consent, running a clandestine campaign to get Democrats to write him in. While delegates may not be at stake, prestige is. Not only would a disappointing showing damage Biden, but it would also hurt the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s hopes of regaining recognition of their primary.
Phillips has turned the spurning of New Hampshire into his rallying cry. In a recent campaign ad, he compared Biden to Bigfoot, pointedly asking, “Why write him in when he’s written us off?” He also has reason to think he has momentum. In addition to picking up an endorsement from 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang, polling has shown him picking up an appreciable amount of support.
An Emerson College poll taken Jan. 8–10 found Biden leading Phillips 49–16, with 27 of likely Democratic primary voters undecided. American Research Group found Phillips climbing higher, at 28 percent versus Biden’s 58 percent.
While losing by 30 points in the state on which he’s staked everything won’t do much more for Phillips than it did for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the former has more reason for optimism. Since the president won’t appear on the ballot and will need to be written in, it’s unclear how much of Biden’s support will actually materialize on Tuesday. That uncertainty means that a shockingly bad performance can’t be counted out.
