If there is a single issue that encapsulates the political incompetence of both Republicans and Democrats, it is the debate over aid to Ukraine. With nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held by the G7, using those funds to pay for the war is one easy political win — but one neither party has been willing to take.
Now current events are forcing the issue. Aid for Israel (overwhelmingly supported by Republicans), aid for Ukraine (overwhelmingly supported by Democrats), and a potential government shutdown will make it impossible to kick the can down the road.
While Biden and the Democrats slowly grope their way forward, House Republicans are not only mired in their own civil war but there is little indication they will emerge from the Speakership battle with any coherent agenda. And a directionless Republican Party — with Trump, Senate, and House Republicans all to blame — gives Biden and the Democrats a chance to figure things out in spite of themselves.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, American support for Ukraine has floated on a combination of moral outrage, traditional sympathy for the underdog, and hatred for Putin.
But as this war grinds through its second year, support for American funding is flagging. This turn of events can be laid squarely at the feet of an administration that has no coherent strategy to win and no robust messaging to appeal to the broader American public for continued support.
Team Biden’s decisions on arms provision, sanctions enforcement, and messaging are invented on a day-to-day basis. Its strategic plan for deciding which weapons to provide seems to be: Never. Maybe. OK, but less than you want, and finally a little more. Imagine D-Day with the Biden Administration in charge — we’d have endless press releases and events, followed by landing American troops one man at a time.
Not surprisingly, this non-strategic, dilatory, tremulous “policy” has allowed the war to drag on, encourage Russian intransigence, and cause political support to atrophy. Even though America is more insulated from the negative effects of the war than practically any other country, the conflict has still caused energy prices to rise and generally contributed to inflation.
The erosion in support for aid has mostly been among Republicans. In an October 2022 survey, YouGov found that 27 percent of Americans supported sending more military aid to Ukraine, while 21 percent favored decreasing aid. Meanwhile, just 22 percent of Republicans favored sending more aid and 30 percent favored sending less. A year later, the same YouGov September 2023 poll had Republican support for more aid falling to 15 percent and for decreasing aid rising to 50 percent. Independent support has also softened, going from 20 percent for decreasing to 31 percent for decreasing.
Team Biden has been coasting for far too long. The administration has failed to robustly make the case that aiding Ukraine is in the national interest. In particular, Team Biden has clung to slogans that work for the New York-Washington axis of elites instead of communicating in a persuasive way to the rest of the country.
In spite of the propaganda spewed by lazy, hyperventilating pundits, money is the heart of the problem and not some fealty to Putin. According to the Sept. 19 YouGov benchmark poll, Republicans view Putin net unfavorably by an 84 percent to 11 percent margin, in line with Democrats (82 percent to 10 percent) and more unfavorably than independents (74 percent to 9 percent). Russia is considered an “enemy” or “unfriendly” by 82 percent of Republicans (Democrats: 88 percent, independents: 77 percent). The softest group is 18 to 29-year-olds with a split of 64 percent to 20 percent net unfavorable to Putin.
These numbers are consistent with older YouGov polling, opinions on Russia and Putin have barely changed among Republicans. The “pro-Putin” thesis is clearly false, and demonstrably so if one were to make the slightest effort to look into the polling.
The problem is that Republicans and independents (to some extent) have become very concerned about inflation and government spending — issues that barely show up on the radar screen for Democratic voters.
Again, referring to the YouGov benchmark, taxes and spending are “very important” to 83 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independents, but to just 47 percent of Democrats. Inflation is “very important” to 90 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of independents, but 63 percent for Democrats.
When asked to rank-order issues, the differences between Republicans and independents vs. Democrats are even more stark. Inflation is the top issue by far for both Republicans (34 percent) and independents (25 percent), while a relatively paltry 14 percent of Democrats agree. Taxes and spending rate as the fourth most important issue at 10 percent for Republicans and 8 percent for independents, yet barely rating for Democrats at 2 percent.
Hamas’ attacks on Israel have drawn the ire of Republicans and conservatives — 73 percent sympathize with Israel, as opposed to 3 percent with the Palestinians. Democrats are more fractured at a split of 34 percent vs. 16 percent, favoring Israel. Clearly, there is a high impetus for Republicans to support military aid for Israel. But any aid package would likely include a Democratic demand for Ukraine aid. Fortunately for the Ukrainians, Vladimir Putin decided to throw his lot in with Hamas. (RELATED: Putin Is Thanking His Lucky Stars for the War in Israel)
Politically, Republicans risk Biden and the Democrats taking the play away from them. We have already seen this play out. The FTX fraud was all teed up for Republicans to benefit, but they fumbled and dithered (as usual), allowing the Biden Justice Department to indict the perpetrators and are now poised to profit as the trial heads toward a guilty verdict.
Now it appears that Biden will outwit witless Congressional Republicans with a big aid package that funds Israel, Taiwan, border security, and Ukraine. There is still an opportunity to press for the liquidation of frozen Russian assets and not only score a political win but increase the pressure on Putin and show that the United States can play real hardball on the international scene.
