Yes, it’s a robo-poll and it’s early, so all caveats apply, but today’s Rasmussen has Thompson ever so slightly ahead of Giuliani 28-27, which is a statistical tie. Interesting thing is that Rudy’s support actually got a 3 point bump since last week, and looking at this chart reveals an interesting trend.
When Thompson was first mentioned as a candidate back in March, most people thought he posed the biggest threat to Romney, but when he debuted in polls, it was actually Rudy he hurt most. Now, at least according to this poll, it seems like he’s done his initial damage to Rudy, and is beginning to hurt Romney and McCain.
A quick recap. When Thompson first appeared in the poll at 14 percent in early April, Rudy’s support dropped immediately by 9 points (from 35 to 26) while McCain and Romney support held firm. Since the end of May, when his intentions were becoming more apparent, Thompson’s poll support vaulted from 12 to 28. During that time period, Rudy’s numbers actually crept back up, but Romney and McCain have dropped (Romney from his peak of 16 to 10, and McCain from 15 to 10).
While this is only a single poll, it will be interesting to see if this carries over into other polls.
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