Dave, I'm working on a longer piece on the news, but a few quick points:
–In 2008, national security/terrorism will be the most important issue in the Republican primary as voters decide who will succeed Bush as commander-in-chief. Rudy Giuliani is the best positioned on this issue.
–A viable conservative alternative has not emerged. We all know that John McCain, despite his conservative social views, is at least as unpopular if not far more unpopular than Giuliani among grassroots conservatives, for a number of reasons. Mitt Romney has a record of supporting abortion and gun control, even though he's now singing a different tune. Furthermore, he has no experience to speak of on the national security/terrorism front. Newt Gingrich, while popular among conservatives, does not have a realistic chance of winning a general election.
If this were a pre-9/11 election focused primarily on domestic issues I'd agree that Giuliani doesn't have a prayer. If there were a socially conservative candidate who was strong on national security and had a good chance of winning a general election, I'd also agree with you that he doesn't have a shot. But given the very unique circumstances of the 2008 election, I would not write off "
(Though perhaps I should know better than to question Mr. Hogberg, the Nostradamus of political prognostication.)