I still say no, and that they’re more likely to lose seats than make gains. But this new Gallup poll shows a post convention bounce for the GOP brand itself, with the double digit lead in the generic ballot enjoyed by Democrats all year narrowing to just three points. The poll, according to the release, “casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats’ maintaining control of Congress.” I’d like to see more polls reinforcing this, and look at more district-by-district polling, before I take it too seriously.
One other point is that a few months ago, we hosted a breakfast with House minority leader John Boehner and he argued that the GOP leadership wasn’t going to try and nationalize elections, but rather instruct their candidates to do what they needed to within their own district. I wonder whether, given the improving fortunes of Republicans, they will change course and decide to run a national campaign.