The New FDU poll has McCain trailing by just 6 in New Jersey. In their last poll, taken in June, Obama was up 16.

One interesting item:

For the first time since April 2005 a majority of voters (52%) say the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going “fairly well” or “very well.” Nearly one-third of Democrats agree, as well as a majority of independents, and four of five Republicans. Opinions of how well the military effort is going have improved despite that a majority of voters (63%) continue to say the war was a mistake and just one in four voters (28%) say it was the right thing to do.

During the 2006 elections Democrats had two arguements they could gain traction with: 1) the Iraq War was a mistake and 2) it’s going poorly and there’s no end in sight. Right now, they’re limited to just the first arguement, and it’s backward looking.

Obviously, Obama is likely to pull out New Jersey in the end, but it’s worth noting that even in a Democratic state, a majority of voters think things are going well in Iraq.