Overconfidence? - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics

My article today notes that Hillary Clinton got a free hour of TV time Friday in Oregon because Barack Obama refused an invitation to debate:

Oregon has an unusual mail-in election system and, as of Friday, only 22 percent of voters had sent in their ballots for tomorrow’s primary. When Obama ceded Hillary that hour of free TV time, polls showed him leading in Oregon by as many as 20 percentage points. However, an American Research Group poll taken late last week indicated the race might be tightening, with Obama leading Hillary by only a 50-45 margin.

Now, another poll shows Oregon to be much closer than expected:

In Oregon, Obama (45 percent) led Clinton (41 percent) by 4 points. . . .
The Suffolk University polls were conducted May 17-18, 2008.

This is the latest survey of Oregon, and the finding that Obama’s support is under 50 percent is the most interesting result. He may still win big in Oregon (he’s pretty popular in Portland), but a landslide is looking less likely. Meanwhile, Obama’s campaign has changed its mind about claiming the nomination tomorrow.

UPDATE 1:15 p.m.: The Boston Globe notes the same poll trend in Oregon and adds:

Clinton, on the other hand, continues to lead handily in every poll in Kentucky, which also votes Tuesday. . . . But she isn’t taking any chances and hopes to win big enough to cut into Obama’s lead in the total popular vote, campaigning all day in the Bluegrass State.

There are roughly equal numbers of delegates at stake in Kentucky (51) and Oregon (52). Depending on turnout and the margin in each state, Hillary’s net gain in the popular vote total could be as politically useful as her delegate haul.

Robert Stacy McCain
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