A Clear Dead Heat in Michigan
by

Jennifer: You say the Michigan polls are “all over the map,” but they look pretty consistent to me. Factor in the margins of error:

30-22 for Romney, +/-5
= between 35 and 25 for Romney, between 27 and 17 for McCain
27-26 for McCain, +/-4
= between 30 and 22 for Romney, between 31 and 23 for McCain
27-22 for Romney, +/-4
= between 31 and 23 for Romney, between 26 and 18 for McCain
34-27 for McCain, +/-4
=between 31 and 23 for Romney, between 39 and 30 for McCain

Bottom line: Every poll is telling us it’s too close to call. ARG’s relatively high number for McCain (the last one listed) looks like it could be an outlier, but even that one isn’t all that far out of sync with the others.

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