I think Fred Thompson would probably need a surprise second place showing in Iowa and a subsequent Huckabee collapse to turn this thing around. Finishing third in a field in which Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are essentially not competing in the state I don’t think will provide the necessary boost to convince people he’s for real. Also, Huckabee’s rise has come at the expense of Thompson more than anybody else. Should the Huckaboom turn out to be a Huckabubble, Thompson will be the most likely to benefit when it pops. Given that Thompson has remained in the mix in South Carolina even as he has faded elsewhere, should Huckabee make an early exit, Thompson would be the favorite to win there. There’s no doubt that a lot of Republicans were dying to get behind Thompson, but many lost hope that he would take off. Should he have a late surge in Iowa, he may be able to convince people he’s viable again, and we could get a second Fredboom in January.
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