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The Public Policy
Republicans Struggle to Get Off the Mat
In Alice McDermott's touching, depressing novel, Charming Billy, a 1998 National Book Award winner, the Irish-American narrator, makes a parenthetical comment on her father's "legion of cousins" in New York, regarding whom "it had seemed to me that there were more alcoholics among them than there were Republicans, or even redheads."
I laughed out loud when I first read that passage since my family was one of the few Republican households in St. Louis who were both Irish and Catholic (and German and French) in the 1950s and 1960s. My grandfather "converted" to the GOP during the New Deal, which was probably a lot easier for him since he married a St. Louis German-American woman after moving to town from Cincinnati. Irish-German matches are very common in the Midwest.
Unlike the Irish, the Germans were loyal Republicans given their historic opposition to slavery and support for the Union and Abraham Lincoln. If you look at an electoral map of Missouri for the 1860 presidential election, only two counties-St. Louis and Gasconade on the Missouri River-voted for Lincoln. These were strong areas of German-American culture. The rest of the state, pro-slavery and Scots-Irish, voted solidly Democratic.
After the elections of 2006 and 2008, one could be forgiven for thinking there were more alcoholics in America than there are Republicans. Even Republicans had second thoughts about being Republican given…I will spare you, gentle reader, the litany of un-Republican things perpetrated by Republicans over the last eight years.
It is a wonder that more Republicans haven't become alcoholics.
Nevertheless, the summer of 2009, bringing with it an extremely negative popular reaction to a host of new Democratic governmental programs, spending, taxes, debt and general messing around with the economy and American society, seems to have revived the fortunes of the GOP if only modestly.
The Gallup organization now reports that "The Republican Party image-quite tattered in the first few months after the 2009 elections-has seen some recent improvement." Don't fire off the carbide cannon yet, but things seem to be looking up just a bit.
Forty percent of Americans now hold a favorable view of the Republicans, which is up from 34 percent in May. They still hold the Democrats in higher esteem, with 51 percent viewing them favorably.
The GOP had reached bottom in two consecutive polls in November 2008 and May 2009 with that 34 percent favorability rating.
Gallup identifies the recent lift as coming from "rank-and-file Republicans" whose favorability rating of their own party Chernobyled this spring, dropping to 63 percent. It is now back up above 80 percent.
Democrats' favorability rating for their party is at 91 percent.
Technical note: Gallup's polling data is derived from its annual Governance Survey, conducted August 31 through September 2, based on telephone interviews with 1,026 adults, 18 or older, which yields a 95 percent confidence that the "maximum margin of sampling error" is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Democrats still are viewed more favorably than Republicans by independents but the percentage is now 40 percent, down from 47 percent going back to November 2008.
Of particular interest to readers of this site is that more liberals hold a favorable view of Democrats than do conservatives relative to the GOP. Eighty percent of liberals think highly of the party of Jefferson and Jackson, but only 55 percent of conservatives think well of the heirs of Lincoln. "And while more than half of several demographic groups view the Democrats favorably, the Republicans receive this level of support from only Republicans and conservatives," says Gallup.
Republican numbers rival the Democrats in the South, among men and upper-income Americans. Among the young, women, the middle-aged, Easterners, Midwesterners, and those earning under $75,000, the Democrats do much better, i.e., in the range of 53-58 percent.
"Still, the Republicans have a fair distance to go to reach parity with the Democrats on this measure -- something not achieved since late 2005 (although they came close right after the Republican National Convention in September 2008)," notes Gallup. "Restoring its image even among Republicans, as well as among conservatives, could be a place for the Republican Party to start." Nota Bene.
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Schnauzer| 9.25.09 @ 7:22AM
Ya Basta! to the pointless backslappers - career politicians, self-important and utterly useless legions of 'staffers' who breathlessly whisper to themselves, "... I'm on a valuable mission for the Senator, that makes me valuable....". They have blown it for that last time. One or the other, Paris of 1793 or Berlin of 1989 I really don't care. The advantage of Parisian option is the failed lawyer/political/criminal class would be prevented for further breeding. THAT is a good thing.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.25.09 @ 7:46AM
First, who could trust any conclusion drawn from a random sample of those who are so tired of getting “sampled” that they invariably lie? (I complete any survey given me and I always lie to the pollsters. I look at this dishonesty as their punishment for being nosy. ) Second, even if the results were not skewed by those such as myself and given the fact that less than four points decide most elections who cares about something with a plus or minus four percent conclusion.
Elections have consequences, polls don’t mean squat.
Alan Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 12:52PM
figures lie and liars figure.
data mining? ist dat vut it ist called, Ja?
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.25.09 @ 1:57PM
Now I have not done either but I imagine that reading something B or T has written would be very much like wearing flip flops and stepping in Barney Frank's stool.
Alan Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 8:39AM
Tough one.
The GOP is too compromised.
But a true conservative party would take so long to build.
Besides, many conservatives are more superstitious than religious-- the hicks. And, to be fair, hicks work hard. But FAR too much vulgarity. Mention that fact today, though, and you are a snob; constructivism is secretly frowned upon today.
Doesn't look good.
Looks like human nature is really sneaking up on conservatism now.
victor| 9.25.09 @ 11:14PM
Can you speak English, please?
Or is English even your second language?
Alan Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 8:46AM
... but I'm a cynic, AND also, incongruously, an ingenue, in always forgetting that politics is supposed to be devious; democracy is mob rule;
and republicanism, though workable, is, it goes without saying at AS, indirect.
Alan Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 8:50AM
... okay, one more post here, but an important one.
All a Latino action group has to do is say "we'll tell our people not to vote GOP if the candidate doesn't offer us what we want", and the candidate caves in.
Again, it doesn't look good from a constructivist perspective.
victor| 9.25.09 @ 11:19PM
Constructivist Perspective?
I think the Piaget class is down the hall and to the right.
JimP| 9.25.09 @ 10:07AM
I don't put a lot of faith in Gallup's polling and suspect the GOP's popularity/trust is slightly higher than Gallup's numbers. Nevertheless, the GOP continues to be pretty much invisible while the Dems offer one opportunity after another for the GOP to expose them for the deceitful, fraudulent, economic & policy lunatics that they are. The current GOPers are unimaginative, status quo personality types, and they are too comfortable looking out for themselves, IMO. Without a Reagan type leader they will improve their numbers in the coming elections but otherwise continue to fumble and bumble along marginally improving the disaster of Obama and the Dems is what I expect. It's a darn shame too. There is an opportunity to turn things around 180 degrees in the chaos created by the Dems because the 'silent majority' is awake, angry and willing to vote for genuine conservative representation.
JP| 9.25.09 @ 10:33AM
People forget that the GOP polled much worse in 1977. The 1976 post-mortum by those in the know was that Republicans would go by the wayside in much the same way the Whigs and Federalists went. In 1977, the Democrats enjoyed even larger leads in both Houses than 2009, and believe it or not Carter had slightly better approval ratings in May 1977 than Obama did in April 2009. Carter's approval peaked that summer around 69%.
The damage Nixon did to his party wasn't so great that 6 years later the GOP would be on the rise again. Likewise, the damage that moderate GWB did to the party (with a big assist from congressional Republicans) can still be overcome. President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senate Leader Reid have done more than anyone at the RNC to lift conservatives.
The problem is that conservatives see themselves as conservatives Americans first, Republicans second. Add on the growing list of Independents and Libertarians dissatisfied with Obama and his party, and the GOP has a prime oppurtunity to redeem itself. The challange is to unite these 3 groups (conservatives, libertarians, and independents). New England will also be more conservative than the South, and the Plains and West tends to be both liberal and libertarian. The Midwest is populist conservatives. The West is a combination of conservatives and libertarians. Many areas of the West and New England will remain out of reach for social and demographic reasons.
IMHO not only will 2010 be a referendum on Obama and his party, but by 2012 there will be enough disaffected voters out there to form a potential landslide against Obama. The question is, will the voters have confidence in the GOP alternative?
Matt| 9.27.09 @ 11:10PM
See here for a discussion of theConservative/Libertarian/Republican trilema: http://conversationsaroundawoodstove.blogspot.com
JP| 9.25.09 @ 10:36AM
Correction:
"New England will also be more conservative than the South,"
should read The South will always be more conservative than New England
Pat| 9.25.09 @ 10:48AM
Despite an overuse of his "more alcoholics than Republicans in America" imagery, this author pounds out another dreary sermon about what's wrong with Republicans, why are they less popular than Democrats and are they catching up or even forging ahead of the Dems?
Apparently, conservative white Americans love these types of articles and this author's tediously repeated message is a perennial favorite. White conservatives use a kind of code to talk about this issue - and this not so secret code requires complex mental gymnastics on their part.
For example, it is acceptable to note the Democrats seem favored by minority groups - a laughable and gross understatement - but you can't say it's because the Democrats offer minorities something for nothing - or actually something for nothing at your expense. You can think it but you can't say it. You can also think, without uttering the words, that no matter how much they take from you, the white conservatives, to give to minorities, they'll want even more in the future - and where will it eventually end - well how much wealth do you possess?
You can't say any of these things and it's actually better for your blood pressure not to even think such thoughts. To be considered politically correct, you must pretend, out loud if not internally, that conservative values will win in the end, that minorities will come to vote GOP and share all your values - and this miracle will occur because conservative values are intrinsically good.
But conservatives need to realize that their values are not the issue, it's their wealth and ability to control their lives that is at stake. The emotions of greed, envy and hatred the Democrats are able to harness with incredible ease will always outperform the moral concepts of a Locke or a Jefferson - take the hint conservatives, drop the code phrases and start talking bluntly and honestly.
S.L. Toddard| 9.25.09 @ 11:04AM
The point should not be to bring Conservatives to the GOP, it should be to introduce the GOP to Conservatism.
Alan Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 12:55PM
Introduce illegals back to Mexico.
Got to start somewhere.
A Brooks| 9.25.09 @ 12:58PM
GOP, SEE SEE
Simon Templar| 9.27.09 @ 10:22AM
Ditto. The first step should be to reintroduce the GOP party to conservatism and the second to get back the cultural institutions that we have abandoned to the Left..the media, the schools, the universities, the entertainment industry, etc. It is a wonder why these polls look like this? Unless we get back the medium of the message..it does not really matter what we do..they, the Left, will define who we are, what we stand for, and what we will be.
K| 9.28.09 @ 12:00AM
Bingo!
How come I don't see you on Threedonia any longer?
Dixie Pixie| 9.25.09 @ 11:26AM
To Mr. Mehan
You are looking at the wrong data set. The poll numbers can and have been subject to MSM Media manipulation which gives the Democrats a huge advantage. Just because the poll winds have changed does not mean they can't change back with equal speed. Just ask Carl Rove's “Permanent Republican Majority”.
What you should be looking at internal Republican structure and philosophy. Without a major change in the Republican quasi-aristocracy the Republican's are dead in the water for the foreseeable future. Right now the leadership is trying to romance the Black and Northeastern voter blocks back into the party. The leadership believes a voter change in any of the democratic blocks is worth 2 to 1 votes over a conservative vote. After all a change from a democratic to republican vote means the democrats lose one vote and the republicans gain one vote thus two for one.
Right now the republican leadership does not dispute the major points of democratic philosophy. In short the republican party is in a follow the democrat mode. With out a clean break with current republican thought and speech a conservative would be a fool to follow the current leadership as the conservatives would be sold out as soon as possible.
solon the thinker| 9.25.09 @ 11:33AM
Republicans will wont be trusted again for a very long period,for the last 50 yrs they have abandoned,individual rights,for religion,family values and tradition.
Ken (Old Texicans)| 9.25.09 @ 1:46PM
I am so sick of so-called "conservative" whiners!
I have pasted my post from another thread to address you.
Quit griping at Republicans...it is our only "party" hope. We just got to elect the right Republicans.
See below.
One thought:
"Character truly does matter!"
This President has no character. He certainly has an agenda. He certainly hates America as we know it. He is a traitor to his oath of office. He has no intention of defending the constitution as it exists, but only as he can re-grow it.
I shall go further. His very "firstest" act as US President was a bald faced lie: " I will protect and defend the constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic..."
Believe it! This man will do a lot of damage to our country. We can repair it, but you know, he and his helpers, and his helpful idiots have made a calculation!
That calculation is that they can ride the "Tiger", both foreign and domestic.
They believe they can crush domestic opposition by starving us out one business by one business, and one job by one job. They believe we will submit.
Many of you will. You will use all sorts of rationalizations..."I've got kids...I've got to make a living...I'm going to keep my head down and let others do the heavy lifting..." and a million others.
You are overlooking some realities however.
1. There really is a hostile world outside our borders that is going to start nipping away at our hamstrings....very soon.
2. There is no way...no way...you can dodge the consequences of these people in power.
3. You and I will pay the price for freedom and liberty, even if you hide in your basement.
4. Martial law is one staged incident away no matter how carefully we walk the line. It will be called "national emergency" which as you might know gives a sitting President almost unlimited powers.
5. I know most of you are frightened. So am I, and so is every member of TEAM America.
6. Courage is merely swallowing the fear and doing what must be done to preserve your (decent) life and that of our country.
7. The "sovereignty" Obama was delegating to the UN over the last few days is YOUR sovereignty...OUR "We the People" sovereignty.
Well .....there are a lot of realities to face.
I read a phrase by a brilliant columnist yesterday.
"...the inchoate voices of an aroused citizenry at the tea-parties..."
Definition of inchoate: incomplete, rudimentary.
We at TEAM AMERICA have chosen to try our best to "complete" the voices and their message, and to step ahead of the curve to peer into our alternate routes into the future as free Americans.
We are creating a network among the grass root voices across this country to help them all unite in one voice saying one thing: "You are fired"!
ie: "Youall can squat in the whitehouse, and you can squat in your congressional offices until your firing is effected, but WE can choose to SIT DOWN in our various harnesses until you clean out your desks."
That is the true vote that it may come to ladies and gentlemen...but we need to organize it and time it for maximum impact...nation wide.
www.myteamusa.org
Please help us if you decide to serve liberty.
Al Adab| 9.25.09 @ 2:38PM
Ken, you are right on here. Unless the Conservative movement reenergizes the GOP both are doomed to failure. That is the only vehicle Conservatives have and it was the Conservatives who brought it success in 1980 and 1994. That is the lesson the GOP must learn.
truth| 9.25.09 @ 2:56PM
"one staged incident away"
crashed airplanes almost worked last time
Quartermaster| 9.25.09 @ 2:52PM
The GOP didn't learn it in 1980 or 1994. What makes you think there's a snowball's chance in H3ll of them learning it now? You can't even get them to deal with one issue that truly resonates with the elctorate of both parties - illegal immigration. Those buffons would rather go down in flames than face reality.
Al Adab| 9.25.09 @ 3:56PM
Yes QM, and thereby hangs the tale. It is a great fear that RINO- GOP will not learn that lesson and the accomodationist sect will prevail. Should that happen, what hope (to coin a phrase) is left and how do we defend our Constitution against our government?
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.25.09 @ 5:59PM
QM, Al Adab.........fire 'em all and let God sort em out. (smile)
WE the people will defend our constitution. Team America is only the best place to have your best thoughts spread across the national population of folks.............that have a bit of courage.
Best regards
Dixie Pixie| 9.25.09 @ 7:24PM
Ken
I hope your Team America concept takes off. However I knew the GOP was doomed when John McCain considered Joseph Lieberman as his Vice Presidential pick. Senator McCain has done nothing since then to consider the GOP to be electoral viable.
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martin j smith| 9.26.09 @ 8:33AM
The stuff that matters are 1) what are the conditions "on the ground" for the American voter. ? This means the economic situation as well as other national security issues such as terrorist attacks etc.
2) What do parties have to offer. At this time Republicans position has improved because "conditions on the ground are not so good"
and because to some extent the Democrats have
been seen as the culprits for these conditions, The problem for Republicans is weak leadership and lack of cohesion of message. The main hope for them is if "conditions on the ground are bad enough to sway enough people to "throw the bums out".
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.26.09 @ 1:18PM
martin J
...You master of understatement , you (smile)
Sir, I and many other Americans have come to believe that this whitehouse and congress are NOT stupid. I haven't even seen...any...approval poll numbers on congress lately, but they must be in the toilet.
But!
If they are not stupid, then what is their plan to stay in power based upon? HMMMMMMM?
Every single "not at the trough" finance guy and economist in the country knows very well that "conditions on the ground" are deteriorating rapidly. Solid working Families out of work, can gimp along for a while, but not for years.
The evidence is clear in Texas. You would not believe the numbers of out of state cars are on every street and hiway. (people trying to vote with their feet).
Please, people, begin storing up for a pretty rocky economy for the forseeable future. You really can buy enough basic foodstuffs to last 4 people a year for about $300. (wheat and beans in fifty pond bags, and LOTs of your favorite seasonings and sauces) (smile)
Carolynn | 9.26.09 @ 4:05PM
Glen Beck is doing a terrific job of helping people believe the GOP is a worthless organization which shows no distinction from the Democratic Party.
Is it any wonder that so many conservatives think Republicans stink as Glen Beck leads them out of ... where is Beck leading people?
The number one reason I belong to the Republican Party is because it stands for the "Sanctity of Human Life". That speaks volumes to heart of the GOP. Small government, lower taxes etc... will never trump the moral conscience of the Republican Party which I am proud to be a member of.
martin j smith| 9.26.09 @ 4:55PM
I live in a very blue area in a very blue state butpeople do not talk much --I mean the knee jerk liberal types -- and I think that there is a seething unspoken feeling not put into words. Further in a recent democratic primary only 10% participated. --candidates for local office look like spohmores in college running for class president.
Anyway the question is: are these folks in denial of the harm being done to them even loyal democrats or are they head in sand in denial. The 90% who did not participate must be sending some messaage Time will tell.
Yosemeti Sam| 9.27.09 @ 10:39AM
Primaries - they have a reason for being!
They are 'key'. There's the 'mat' of relevance.
To weed out pretenders - aka RINOs.
To 'vet' the political history of would be
GOP conservatives, in the paraphrased
words of El Rushbo - via the equivalent of
an anal exam.
The objective is not to field a candidate
of dubious spectre .
Build a foundation upon ROCK! Not sand!
Ken(Old Texican)| 9.27.09 @ 11:13AM
Carolynn
Thank you for your work in the trenches. Have you identified a good conservative candidate for congress where you live?
Dixie
I was distressed too, but take courage! The Democrats have done the job the GOP could not have done. ie: drive the country off a cliff in such a cavalier fashion to force the GOP to field conservatives or watch the country go into a truly horrible re-constitution process.
2010 is our last chance...our last chance...to prevent that.
TEAM AMERICA fills a different niche than the blogs and essayists and Spectators. We are working trying to connect the grass roots into a coherent whole with a simple goal. Roll back government control of our lives.
http://judgeroy.wordpress.com
Wally| 9.27.09 @ 1:32PM
The author points out that Republicans base is strong but Republicans are less popular in the middle; and the overwhelming response here is, "Go more right wing!" Yeah, that'll work. Speaking of polling, pro-life (which I am), anti gay marriage and immigration are rapidly tracking away from conservative viewpoints. So, if you (white) guys want the Republicans to not simply be a white southern regional party, you might want to rethink that 'go more right wing' strategy. Also, there are a LOT of Republican Irish-Catholics. But not a lot of college educated Irish-Catholic Republicans.
Margie| 9.27.09 @ 3:34PM
Wally,
The answer is to return to our roots. The Republicab party is being "infiltrated" by the "new Agey" type so called "conservatism. Along with the "moderate" Republicans, they are destroying the party. The answer, is, we need more Reagan conservatives. Just go on you tube and listen to his speeches. THIS is what our Party needs to return to. Not to morph into some psuedo-conservatism baloney. Call it "moving to the Right", if you like, but unless we return to our roots, we are lost!
Margie| 9.27.09 @ 3:37PM
..Forgot to mention. A perfect example of a Reagan conservative is Sarah Palin. She is hated by the pseudo conservatives and moderates. It is very unfortunate.
Motown Mike| 9.28.09 @ 6:45AM
Reagan conservatives need to "borrow" the Republican Party for awhile since the Republicans don't use it very much.
Wally| 9.28.09 @ 1:30PM
Margie, Your first post was very good. Your follow up was, well, kooky. Reagan had the right rap but as you know, in his actual politics, he was not right wing. He bloated the federal budget, he negotiated with and compromised with the Soviets, his Supreme Court nominees were mainly moderates and he never pushed any domestic abortion, gay bashing or pro church legislation. He certainly had a way with words but his actual policies were moderate conservatism.
Palin like Reagan? Palin is dumb as a bag of hammers ("I read them all") , a liar (see Bridge to Nowhere) and a quitter. Reagan was none of those. I am glad at least that you did not put those two names in the same post.