Politicians and pundits want to declaim the lessons we should learn from Russia’s war against Ukraine despite the fact that the war — now eighteen months old — may not yet have reached its halfway point.
Russian President Putin, as I have written before, wants to keep the war going at least until 2025 when U.S. support for Ukraine will diminish whether or not we have a new president. If the Republicans keep the House, they will seek a significant decrease and if a Republican is elected president, all bets are off. (READ MORE: The Russia–Ukraine War Must End in Compromise)
Putin can afford to do so despite the economic sanctions we and some European nations have imposed. Putin can even afford to shoot missiles at the moon, an extravagance demonstrated fully by the latest failure. (The “Luna-25,” Russia’s first moon shot in forty-seven years, crashed into the moon’s surface on Sunday morning.)
The lessons of the Ukraine war begin with the fact that war’s brutality depends almost entirely on the identity of the belligerents. America tries to limit its wars, usually foolishly, in the hope of reducing U.S. and enemy casualties. Israelis literally warn Palestinians about which buildings are about to be bombed so civilians (and terrorists) have an opportunity to flee.
In contrast Russia has, from the outset, made this war worse than anything the West has seen since 1945. Russian attacks intentionally target civilians as a matter of policy. Schools, hospitals, and city centers are regularly targeted by the Russians. Their savagery is complete and undiminished. A Russian missile attack killed seven civilians and wounded more than one hundred on Saturday.
The war has reportedly caused about five hundred thousand casualties — dead and wounded — on both sides so far in Ukraine. It’s becoming obvious that Ukraine does not have enough troops to sustain its operations. Last week, Ukrainian President Zelensky had to fire all of Ukraine’s regional conscription officials because they were taking bribes to allow people to evade conscription.
Much has been written lately about the effects of drone aircraft and boats in the Ukraine war. The war isn’t, as some have written, simply a “game of drones,” but they have had considerable effect on the war.
Edward Luttwak has written that drones will not have a strategic effect on the war because they cannot carry enough payload — in bomb weight — to cause strategic damage. That is as wrong as it is right.
Drones are an inexpensive and very disruptive technology. When it comes down to ISR — intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance — they can serve as a poor man’s air force to a considerable degree. Using suicide drones — ones that are destroyed in an attack — can also be destabilizing in battle. Drones have been responsible for destroying a huge number of armored vehicles on both sides. (READ MORE: Winter Amid Ukraine Drone War)
Drones have had at least one strategic effect: the Russian Black Sea fleet has withdrawn to safe harbor in fear of Ukrainian sea drones. A sea drone may have been responsible for the partial destruction of the Kerch Strait bridge and may do more damage to it again.
If I can sink your billion-dollar ship with a $25,000 USV, I win tactically by sinking the ship, economically by spending less for more impact and even strategically by forcing your fleet back to safe harbor.
Tactically, drones are very effective against troops, vehicles, and materiel. Swarming drones like Russian Lancet 53 cost about $35,000. Swarms of them, guided by machine-learning computers, may soon be devastating.
But both sides have, so far, made good use of drones. They will likely not become the weapon that wins the Ukraine war for either side.
What both sides are learning is that jamming radio and radar signals is essential to modern warfighting. When Ukraine started using “Excalibur” artillery shells, which are guided by GPS signals, they soon found that the rounds didn’t hit the intended targets because Russia was jamming the signals. According to a report in The Economist, four out of nine U.S.-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munitions (bombs) missed their targets because of Russian jamming.
In contrast Russia has, from the outset, made this war worse than anything the West has seen since 1945.
Such electronic warfare is not new, going back at least to the Russo-Japanese war of 1904. But it is now a considerable advantage to Russian forces and Ukrainian forces are playing catch-up. Jammers can also be jammed. Electronic warfare is a constant duel between measure and counter-measure.
President Biden has asked for another $24 billion in aid to Ukraine which congress will consider when it returns in September. But, as others have written, there is no strategy in what Biden is sending Ukraine. Without a strategy, there can be no victory.
Russia’s strategy, at this point, is one of attrition. It can outlast Ukraine because it has far more troops it can conscript and commit and its factories are on a war footing, maximizing their output of munitions and weapon systems. How long they can sustain that effort comes down to how long Russia can afford that effort.
Biden has approved the Netherlands’ intention to send F-16s to Ukraine. This column, since March 2022, has advocated sending combat aircraft such as the MiG-29 to Ukraine, which the Ukrainian air force has been begging for since the war began. Biden blocked sending those aircraft from Poland in 2022 because, as he said then, it would be “escalatory.” Now he has apparently awakened to the need. But Ukrainian pilots have to be trained to fly the F-16, which will take at least several months.
The United States has sent roughly double the aid that all of our NATO allies combined have sent to Ukraine. One ally, Turkey, has been responsible for helping Russia evade our economic sanctions.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, a company called “Beks Ship Management” has purchased thirty-seven oil tankers since 2021, multiplying the value of is its fleet tenfold. According to that report, Beks’ fleet — which includes ships flagged in nations ranging from Turkey to Greece, India and the United Arab Emirates — was, in February of this year, the fourth-largest carrier of Russian oil.
Russia’s Ukraine war is as ugly as a modern war without nuclear weapons can be. Without continuing U.S. support, Ukraine will lose not only the minor gains that its counter-offensive has achieved, but probably the freedom of all of its citizens.
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