Historical analogies are never perfect, but the 2024 presidential campaign and election clearly has echoes of 1968. The 1968 presidential election was one of the closest in history. It pitted incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey against former Vice President Richard Nixon, who eight years before had lost a very close election to John F. Kennedy under a cloud of suspicion about election irregularities in Illinois and Texas (it even had a dispute over a dual slate of electors in Hawaii). There was also strong third-party candidate Alabama Gov. George Wallace, who ran principally on a law-and-order platform and received about 13 percent of the vote. And the campaign and election were fought against the background of an unpopular foreign policy, massive protests on college campuses and in the streets of major cities, out-of-control government spending on both butter and guns, and a widespread perception that “law and order” was breaking down.
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In 2024, an incumbent president is taking on a former president who four years earlier lost a very close and disputed election (complete with voting irregularities in several battleground states and dual slates of electors). This year, as in 1968, a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is running on a platform that includes “law and order” as it relates to the increasingly violent anti-Jewish, anti-Israeli, anti-American, pro-Hamas, pro-Palestinian demonstrations on college campuses and in the streets of major cities. In one of those historical coincidences, he happens to be the son of a presidential candidate in 1968 who was murdered for his pro-Israel views by a Palestinian, Sirhan Sirhan. It is unclear as yet how strong Kennedy’s vote total will be and which major candidate — Joe Biden or Donald Trump — will suffer most as a result of Kennedy’s candidacy. In 1968, although Wallace was a southern Democrat, it is likely that he siphoned more votes from Nixon than Humphrey. Some in the Trump campaign worry that Kennedy will take more votes from Trump than from Biden this year.
In 1968, most major media organs were for Humphrey, though back then they were much more discreet about their liberal bias. Their hatred for Nixon (which reached back to the Hiss case in the late 1940s) only blatantly manifested itself after he won a landslide election in 1972, when, in the words of historian Paul Johnson, they launched a “media putsch” against Nixon to drive him from office. Geoff Shepard in these pages and in several books has presented significant evidence that the major media organs, with their accomplices in Congress, the special prosecutor’s office, and a federal judge or two, conducted what others have called a “silent coup” to remove Nixon from office.
In 2024, the major media organs no longer hide their liberal bias, and they wear their hatred for Trump on their sleeves. And Trump, unlike Nixon in 1968, is distracted from campaigning by unprecedented criminal prosecutions that his supporters and others characterize as “election interference.” Yet, Trump continues to lead in most polls; this may have something to do with the incumbent’s unpopular foreign policies, the breakdown of “law and order” in our major cities, the violent anti-American protests on college campuses, and the out-of-control spending that has created what some economists characterize as “stagflation.” The prices of eggs and gasoline and electricity have more impact on voters than do Biden cheerleaders who talk about the strength of the economy.
In yet another historical coincidence, the 2024 Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago, the scene of riots and protests that marred the Democrats’ 1968 convention there. In 1968, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley’s police force cracked down on the protests. In 2024, it is likely that Chicago officials will be sympathetic to such protests — and we can expect pro-Palestinian/Hamas, anti-Israeli, anti-American, Black Lives Matter, and Antifa demonstrations both inside and outside the convention venue. Democratic mayors, police chiefs, and district attorneys in our major cities were mostly in support of “law and order” in 1968. That is no longer the case in 2024.
In 1968, Richard Nixon won the popular vote by less than 1 million out of more than 70 million votes cast (Nixon’s 31,710,470 to Humphrey’s 30,898,055 to Wallace’s 9,906,473). The electoral college vote was Nixon 301, Humphrey 191, and Wallace 46. The closeness of the 2024 election will likely also echo 1968.
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