For the White House, the war in Gaza has two fronts: the crumbling ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East, and the political threat from progressives at home.
The Biden team has shown significant frustration in its dealings with Israel. Israeli Knesset member Benny Gantz reportedly was “lambasted” by Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during a White House visit last week. And President Joe Biden was caught in an embarrassing hot mic moment at the State of the Union address, saying he was going to have a “come to Jesus meeting” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Oy.
None of these actions are particularly helpful in advancing the diplomatic process. Harris’ recent call for an “immediate ceasefire” is a case in point; since sensitive negotiations are underway, her rhetorical intervention is disruptive and counterproductive. And that was the toned-down version of Harris’ speech, which was much harsher on Israel in draft form before cooler heads in the National Security Council intervened.
Harris’ speech was part of the continuing theater playing out in Washington aimed not at helping end the conflict in Gaza but at placating the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. The “uncommitted” protest votes being cast in Democratic primaries are getting attention and winning delegates. In Dearborn, Michigan, Biden came in second. If pro-Palestinian Democrats stay home in November, former President Donald Trump will have the edge in some closely contested states. (RELATED: Biden Is Behind in the Polls. Are Americans Preparing to Fire Him?)
In response, the White House has resorted to public posturing and high-profile stunts to show its commitment to the suffering Gazans. Case in point: the air-dropped humanitarian assistance, which even the Washington Post and Politico have noted is the most expensive and least efficient means of delivering aid. And sometimes it can even be lethal: Last week five Gazans were killed when a chute failed and aide crates plummeted. The United States denied America was to blame.
Now a plan is being executed to build an offshore harbor and floating pier to deliver aid, though how this will be distributed once it reaches shore is unclear. The plan is technically feasible but extremely complicated, risky, and expensive. As one Department of Defense official said, “It’s not like the movies.”
The White House had been pressing for a ceasefire before Ramadan began on March 10, hoping to milk some symbolism from the Muslim holy month. Ramadan, however, is not a season of peace for violent extremists. Indeed, some terror groups glorify the idea of suicide attacks during Ramadan to speed the attackers’ journey to paradise. Thus, it’s naïve to expect pressure from the Hamas side to get in the spirit of the season. And, in practical terms, tying the ceasefire to an artificial deadline put the United States at a disadvantage. Hamas blew past it just to show that it could defy the Americans, further weakening the White House.
Urgent demands for a ceasefire aside, the facts on the ground determine the course of the negotiations. Israel is slowly, carefully, and systematically tightening its grip on Hamas, block by block, tunnel by tunnel. Hamas strongholds in southern Gaza are gradually being reduced. The pace is slow because Israel is seeking to limit casualties both of Israeli troops and Gaza civilians — and, importantly, to avoid accidentally killing the Israeli hostages that Hamas is still holding.
But while progress is slow, it is steady, and Hamas is running out of places to hide. The upcoming operation to clear Hamas out of Rafah should break the back of the terrorists. White House public statements opposing such an operation only aid Hamas.
The Rafah operation may also end the hostage drama that has gripped Israel since Oct. 7. The terrorists know that the Israeli hostages are the most important of their many human shields. If Hamas had not kidnapped so many Israelis, the Israel Defense Forces would be more determined in rooting the terrorists out of their many tunnels.
Releasing hostages has been a key sticking point in the ceasefire negotiations. Hamas is seeking 10 Palestinian prisoners to be released for each Israeli hostage. But Israel wants to know who Hamas is holding and, critically, how many hostages are still alive. The Hamas leaders either don’t know or won’t say, which does not augur well for the families of hostages hoping for their safe return. If it turns out that many or most of the hostages have died in Hamas custody, there will be little hope for a ceasefire of any duration.
Hamas is also smarting from the fact that the United Nations has finally substantiated charges that Hamas terrorists engaged in widespread sexual assault during the Oct. 7 massacre. Better late than never. Perhaps the U.N. is trying to deflect criticism after more evidence emerged that U.N. relief agents working for UNWRA were directly involved in the Oct. 7 massacre.
Regardless of the pace of the ceasefire talks, Hamas leadership has to know they will not survive in the long run. They could end all suffering in Gaza immediately simply by surrendering, and perhaps Israel might show them some mercy. Perhaps.
Meanwhile, Israel needs the time and space to achieve its war objectives. The United States is not helping with its careless rhetoric and symbolic flourishes. Granted, Biden is being pushed politically to placate progressives in an election year. But his efforts on that front will also fail. Like Hamas, the progressives won’t be pacified and will not compromise. Biden’s symbolic gestures communicate weakness and leave the progressives demanding more. Their aims are the same as those of Hamas — they want political power and to see Israel destroyed. And like the Israelis in Gaza, they are slowly encircling their foe in the White House, block by block.
