I don’t think it could be emphasized enough that all any of these polling companies are doing when surveying the Massachusetts special election is making educated guesses as to what the electorate will look like. In the Globe poll, just 15 percent of those surveyed were independents, yet the bloc of “unenrolled” voters comprised 45 percent of the electorate in the Suffolk poll. It’s no surprise then, that the two polls, taken in the same week, have a 19-point spread between them, from Scott Brown leading Martha Coakley by four points in the Suffolk poll to trailing her by 15 points in the Globe poll. In reality, there’s no way of really knowing what the breakdown of Republicans, Democrats, or independents will be next Tuesday. So, the best we can really say at this point is that there are certain conditions under which Brown can win the seat. Which in and of itself is pretty remarkable for a Republican in Massachusetts this late in the race.
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