As noted on the blog earlier, Charles Djou, the Republican running in a special election in Honolulu to represent the heavily-Democratic district of President Obama’s birthplace, has opened up an 8-point lead over his rivals. It may be especially significant that he’s polling this well now, because as he told me a few months ago, these few days are when the race will be decided:
The special election is officially on May 22, but Djou said the effective election date is three weeks earlier. As a money-saving measure, Hawaii decided to hold an all mail-in election, and based on past experience, Djou expects about half of all ballots to be returned within 72 hours of being sent out on April 30, and 80 percent of them to be returned within the first week. He anticipates a close race, with the first and third place candidate separated by just single digits.
Residents began receiving the ballots in the mail on Sunday.