A few more notes on the poll Jennifer mentioned earlier.
–Ron Paul is experiencing a surge, with his support more than doubling in this poll to 5 percent, almost as high as Huckabee’s 6 percent.
–I don’t think you can attribute Romney’s problems in national polls just to inferior name recognition. Not only are Romney’s unfavorable ratings up, but he is the only one of the major seven candidates in both parties with a net negative favorable/unfavorable rating (he’s at -8%). Also, not only are Republicans the least enthusaistic about Romney’s candidacy, but 22 percent of Republicans polled said they would either vote for the Democrat or stay home if he were the nominee. For all the talk of Republicans bolting the party in the event of a Giuliani nomination, his combined number was at 15 percent. (In perhaps another slap at conventional wisdom, McCain was also at 15 percent and Thompson was at 16 percent).
–Though the poll has Giuliani up 14 points in the nomination battle, one bad sign for him is that his favorability rating has dipped to 49 percent, the first sub-50 percent showing this year, and an indication of his transition from a 9/11 hero to a Republican presidential candidate. In January, he was at 62 percent. His net favorabilty rating is still +10%, which is better than any Republican.
–In bad news for all Republicans–and this reinforces what we see from the fundraising numbers–Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton. Only 10 percent would defect or stay at home, while 64 percent would vote enthusiastically.
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