1-2. Maybe the problem is the messenger and not the message. From the WMUR poll: Romney’s likeability has slid 7 pts. since June. His perceived ability to beat Hillary has also gone south. He clearly wins though as the one best able to bring change.

3. Regular church going and other indices of social conservative strength are certainly lower in NH than Iowa. (And yes the influx of voters from Romney’s home state is ironically part of the reason.)Does Romney’s stress on social issues “hurt”? Maybe among the “live free or die” set but more importantly it just doesn’t get him very far with many voters and emphasizing that message while Rudy comes to roll out his tax plan(as he did in August) or while McCain talks about never giving in to terrorists hasn’t helped him.

4. Rudy is going to have a field day in the next debate on the crime issue. I suspect Romney isn’t going to be raising the sanctuary city issue for awhile (Rudy’s response was : “I was busy getting murderers off the street so I encouraged illegals to come forward to report crimes.”)