These games usually rest on two premises– everyone stays in to the bitter end and there is no momentum which carries from one state to the next. Interestingly, Rudy’s strategy — a variation of the article — rests on the premise that Romney will not gain momentum from early states and that Rudy will pick up Florida and sweep the lion share of delegates on February 5 and beyond. (It seems that the linked piece does not put Florida in the winner take all category which is an error since the state chair now is empowered to make just such a rule change and all indications are that he will do so.) Even if you think Rudy’s “no momentum” theory makes sense early on, it still seems a stretch to think no one slips out of sight and other candidates, most particularly Romney and Thompson who are fighting over the same constituency, remain in such a state of equipoise as to prevent anyone from capturing the nomination.
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