Re: Is Rudy Leading in the Early States? - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Re: Is Rudy Leading in the Early States?

Phil: It’s worth comparing the candidates’ performance in the ARG polls among Republicans vs. independents. In New Hampshire, where Giuliani and Romney are in a statistical dead heat among both Republicans and independents, it might not matter too much whether the percentage of independents in ARG’s sample is representative. But in Iowa and South Carolina, a little bit of statistical noise on this front could make a big difference.

In Iowa, the sample of likely republican voters (those who “definitely plan to participate” in the caucuses) is 82% Republican and 18% independent. Romney is winning among the Republicans with 24% to Giuliani’s 21%; Romney registers only 6% among independents, who back Giuliani by 25% and McCain(!) by 37%.

In South Carolina, Giuliani leads F. Thompson 29%-25% among Republicans, but Thompson crushes Giuliani among independents, 43% to 17%. The South Carolina sample is 90% Republican and 10% independent.

In short, if ARG is oversampling independents in Iowa, or undersampling them in South Carolina, Giuliani’s leads in those states are illusory.

Sign up to receive our latest updates! Register

By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: The American Spectator, 122 S Royal Street, Alexandria, VA, 22314, You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact

Be a Free Market Loving Patriot. Subscribe Today!

Black Friday Special

The American Spectator

One Month for Only $2.99

The offer renews after one year at the regular price of $10.99 monthly.