A new poll shows Mark Sanford tied 46-46 with Elizabeth Colbert Busch in Tuesday’s election to represent South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.
Calls were conducted April 29 to May 1, so it’s possible that voters were swayed by Sanford’s strong debate performance Monday. The question is whether conservatives put off by Sanford’s personal shortcomings will simply decide to stay home. Here’s how RRH/PMI, who conducted the survey, size up the situation:
It appears that the socially conservative suburban areas north of Charleston have depressed enthusiasm. If Sanford can get those voters out at the same rate as Colbert-Busch is turning out her base in Beaufort and Charleston, he will win easily. But as of now it is easy to conclude that there is a turnout disparity working in Colbert-Busch’s favor.
(Hat tip: Jim Geraghty.)