Below, Doug noted the Rasmussen poll giving an edge to the GOP on the Congressional ballot. But what’s noteworthy is that the findings aren’t isolated to Rasmussen, which tends to produce poll results more favorable to Republicans. The Gallup poll now gives Republicans a 4-point edge, which includes a 22-point lead among independent voters.
Gallup also adds some historical context:
Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.
UPDATE: Pew is out with a survey showing anti-incumbent sentiment “among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.” The survey also found Republicans have a “sizable” enthusiasm advantage.