Look who is now third, at least in the RCP poll averages, in Iowa? I don’t think anyone would be shocked by a Romney narrow win or a Huckabee narrow win in Iowa but a lot of people — epecially pundit people– will find the “surprise” (there always has to be a surprise so pundits can talk about something new) in a strong third place finish by McCain. This would be the “comeback” kid storyline and the press would remark on how he did well despite telling Iowans he was opposed to ag subsidies. (Watch the already favorable Boston media ramp up the “his own man” and “not a pnaderer like the other guy” stories if this occurs.) His third place showing would also likely knock Thompson out of the running (he sounds like he’d be happy to depart even with a third place showing), perhaps gaining the support of his close friend and colleague. So maybe Iowa really will be key– just not for the top two finishers.