Yes, Ron Paul is nipping at McCain’s heels and Huckabee (who has a 7.7 pt RCP
lead there) has cruised past Thompson, Rudy and Romney (look at that black line on the RCP chart). If you buy the early state momentum theory and Huckabee does win big in Iowa, it may be hard to stop him in SC. That poses a problem for Romney but more so perhaps for Thompson whose best and likely only shot at a pre-February 5 win is South Carolina. But maybe the early state theory was hooey from the get go (Bush won in SC in 2000 after McCain won NH) and every race is a new game. Yes, it is true that since the SC primary started SC voters have always chosen the eventual nominee although I’d classify that as a “fun fact” but not very compelling.