David Brody notes a new Rasmussen poll showing Huckabee edging out Romney in Iowa, 28-25. While Iowa caucus polls are notoriously unreliable, as best we can tell at this point, what we have is a two-way race for first and second between Huckabee and Romney, and a two-way race for third and fourth between Giuliani and Thompson (Rudy currently has the slight advantage 12-11) .
Given how many resources Romney has put into Iowa, a loss there would be devestating. In an odd way, the Huckabee surge could be good news for him, because it lowers expectations, enabling him to get a bounce out of any win, whereas before only a huge margin would suffice.
As for Giuliani, with Thompson likely to spend more time and money in Iowa, fourth is a realistic possibility. Given that he’s now making a play for New Hampshire, can he afford to be that far back going into the primary without being damaged?
If Fred were to come in fourth, then potentially lose to Ron Paul in New Hampshire, will he even make it to South Carolina, where he’s been slipping?
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