Rich Lowry wonders, “If Rudy is in the high 20’s nationwide, how possibly does he win when the field consolidates?” One of the overlooked aspects of Giuliani’s strength in national polls is that he not only is the first choice of a plurality of Republicans, but he also leads in polls that ask Republicans their second choices. For instance, in this AP/Ipos poll, Giuliani is the first choice of 29 percent of respondents, and the second choice of an additional 20 percent for a combined 49 percent. McCain comes closest with a total of 35 percent, followed by Thompson at 31, and Romney at 27. This Cook/RT Strategies poll had similar findings. Sure, we don’t know how those numbers will look after the early states, but the evidence at this time suggests that Giuliani is the default candidate for many Republicans who currently support somebody else.
UPDATE: Rich Lowry responds, skeptically.
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