Political Hay
Preparing for Failure
President Obama and his ideological peers already have their excuses ready for when the economic stimulus package doesn’t work.
Even while calling for the urgent passage of the $800 billion-plus economic stimulus package, the Obama administration and its liberal allies are laying the groundwork to neutralize criticisms should it fail.
“[B]y the midterm elections we’re probably not going to see an economy that’s better than now,” former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich conceded Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos. “I mean, not that the stimulus program will have failed, but that the stimulus program, even if it succeeds, will not actually kick in. It will not get the economy better than it is now. Without the stimulus, the economy could be far worse in two years than it is now.”
While he hasn’t been quite as explicit as Reich, President Obama has adopted the same line of reasoning as part of his public relations offensive to boost support for the stimulus package: a failure to act will make things worse, even if acting may not make things better — or at least not for a while.
President Obama is selling the plan as one that will “save or create” four million jobs, and he’s continued to hedge his statements on the upside potential of the legislation while portraying the dire consequences of inaction.
Last week, he wrote in a Washington Post op-ed that if Congress didn’t pass the stimulus package: “Our economy will lose 5 million more jobs. Unemployment will approach double digits. Our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse.”
On Monday, President Obama took his show on the road, urging an Elkhart, Indiana audience to get behind his plan, while cautioning them not to expect miracles.
“We know that even with this plan, the road ahead won’t be easy,” Obama said in his initial remarks at the town hall-style gathering. “This crisis has been a long time in the making, and we know that we cannot turn it around overnight. Recovery will likely be measured in years, not weeks or months.”
Then, in his first primetime press conference as president Monday night, Obama explained: “My administration inherited a deficit of over one trillion dollars. But because we also inherited the most profound economic emergency since the Great Depression, doing little or nothing at all will result in even greater deficits, even greater job loss, even greater loss of income, and even greater loss in confidence.”
What this means is that if the economy is still in trouble as the 2010 elections approach, Democrats will argue that eight years of Republican rule left the country in such awful shape that Democrats will need more time to clean up the mess. If unemployment is in the 7 percent to 9 percent range, they’ll say, without their policies, it would have been 12 percent, or perhaps higher.
While lawmakers are primarily interested in getting reelected, to liberal intellectuals who are constantly clamoring for more government spending, the failure of the stimulus package would represent another real-life example of the failure of Keynesian theory. That’s why they’ve been criticizing the plan from the left.
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has led the way by arguing that the stimulus package is far too small.
“[I]f we look at the scale of the problem, the Congressional Budget Office says that we’re gonna have a hole in the economy, insufficient spending to the tune of $2.9 trillion over the next three years,” Krugman said on ABC’s “World News” this Sunday. “And we’ve got a sort of $800 billion plan to cope with it. It’s actually quite a bit on the low side.”
Krugman has complained that the “sort of” $800 billion legislation has too many tax cuts, and that President Obama made too many concessions in an effort to win support of Republicans.
“You know, he did a tremendous amount of attempt at outreach and got zero for it,” Krugman lamented. “Absolutely nothing. And I hope he’s learned his lesson from that.”
In his Monday column, Krugman tore into the compromise legislation forged by centrists in the Senate. “I blame President Obama’s belief that he can transcend the partisan divide — a belief that warped his economic strategy,” Krugman snarled.
So for Krugman and other liberal ideologues, if the economy does not recover after an $800 billion government stimulus package, the excuse will be that Obama abandoned pure Keynesianism out of a misguided desire for bipartisanship.
But unlike Krugman, Democrats will have to face voters in the fall of next year, and if economic conditions do not improve, they’ll be forced to explain how they ran up trillions in debt without having anything to show for it.
About the Author
Philip Klein is The American Spectator’s Washington correspondent. You can follow him on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/Philipaklein
Rocco| 2.10.09 @ 6:48AM
Well, Pebo, I've got news for you. After Jan 20, you're "da man." You're responsible. Your excuses blaming the previous administration will only get so far, and I see the lies coming fast and furious already. One thing I learned as an officer candidate 35 years ago was that the commander (in this case, commander in chief) is responsible for everything, whether he's done it or not, and for what his subordinates do or fail to do. You now have the job, start filling the role and quit whining like some sissy.
Also, start learning some basic economics - economies are cyclical in nature. Bush had his recession, and now you have yours.
To sum it up, I am just not buying what you are selling, pal.
GreginOkinawa| 2.10.09 @ 7:38AM
8 years of Bush? How 'bout 30 years of CRA? How 'bout 50 years of Democratic ideolology?
Melvin| 2.10.09 @ 7:50AM
Rocco you are just a mere speck of dust in the darkening storm. The workers party now rules the roost. All perceived injustices shall be righted, and while Nancy and Harry beat the temperance drum we will march arm in arm right over the cliff, because Barrack says, "Its the right thing to do."
The three horsemen of the Apocalypse will tear this country down to its foundations and then some and rebuild it into a Euro-socialist nirvana.
It is beyond all normal reasoning in why the political elite in this country would want to do so, but what I know, I'm just a product of government run education.
stmichrick| 2.10.09 @ 7:55AM
The stimulo-pork bill should be called the 'We Won' bill.
If it is truly a stimulus bill ALL of the pie-in -the sky leftist constructs like national health care rules, green industry 'jobs' and lifestyle spending(reproduction avoidance) should be stripped out.
Gill O'Teen| 2.10.09 @ 7:58AM
This is not a lawfully elected government thanks to the like of Acorn and personified by Al Franken, it is a tyranny. There is only one solution for tyranny. Clean your guns; sharpen your blades. Do it "for the children" we otherwise saddle with more debt than can ever be repaid by a country that has mortgaged its liberty and freedom for a sales pitch.
JamesJ| 2.10.09 @ 8:43AM
Like the story on Michelle Obama being welcomed by Indian tribes (yes, I said Indian..sue me), we've all become like the Indians. We've lost our spirit, our self-worth, our individualism, our self respect for a few blankets and trinkets provided by the gubbermint. Heavy sigh
Rocco| 2.10.09 @ 9:36AM
Well, Melvin, I had to read your post a second time and got the (humorous) point you made. Between your post and JamesJ, I think you are all correct, unfortunately.
Thank God I was the product of Catholic education (although some may think that is worse!)
james wilson| 2.10.09 @ 9:48AM
Garet Garrett , The Revolution Was (1938)
In a revolutionary situation mistakes and failures are not what they seem. They are only scaffolding. Error is compounded by a longer law, by more decrees and regulations, by further extention of the administrative hand. When you have passed one miracle you must pass another to take care of it..so it was with The New Deal.
Teleprompter Messiah| 2.10.09 @ 9:53AM
This fraud of a bill will accomplish two things: (1) solidify existing Democrat constituencies, e.g, government worker unions; and, (2) create other constituencies dependent upon government which will reliably vote Democrat or support Democrats financially, e.g, all the kids getting "summer jobs" and the renewable energy industry.
As for the economy, this will only warp it by increasing the size and scope of government intervention and put us in a position where we are required to raise taxes in order to meet debt service obligations.
Anthony| 2.10.09 @ 10:00AM
This is quite the fantasy the left has spun for us. Let's see, so the pork o' lot o' ACORN stimulus bill of $800 B is going to have as slight an influence on the economy as the diminutive Mr. Reich? That there are too many tax cuts for the Bush/Cheney twice traumatized Mr. Krugman? And what was that false choice the community organizer threw at us last night, it's either do as I say, or do nothing as the Republicans want? Yes this is quite the freak show on parade. Apparently, the wide eyed Mr. Krugman, who went into hiding, or therapy, after Bush won in 04, has emerged more unhinged than usual. But Paul, you're right about one thing, only Republicans transend partisan politics, to placate leftists, but such is not required from you dedicated socialists. Nope, I believe you call it standing on principle. And yes Paul, when it comes to warped, you leftists now own these economic strategies. Perhaps many ACORN's do make a village. Hey Paul, does your new boss at the Times, Mr. Carlos Slim, share your economic views?
Shockedandawed | 2.10.09 @ 10:07AM
The most disturbing development of this moment is that political leaders don't consider any alternative to the excessive spending plans and that all criticism and contemplation on the dire consequences is already labelled as 'unpatriotic' before it is uttered. Because "we need to act fast." Trillions of Dollars, Euro’s and Roubles are being burned in a bonfire of the desperate. despite the calls for fast decision making, the first effects on the economy can only be expected as from end of the year, the multiplier effect will show up too late, and in any case the ‘stimulus package’ will remain a drop in the ocean of hyperinflation and second wave credit card and insurance company defaults. We are broke and society will notice soon…
Also see Crunchreport.com on these issues.
Pingback| 2.10.09 @ 10:16AM
Obama and company are already practicing excuses for when the "stimulus" fails - XDTa links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
frost| 2.10.09 @ 10:48AM
- - if I were George W. Bush (God forbid!!) and Obama came up with another one of those "let's all get together" with Clinton, Carter, and Bush-the-Elder, I'd simply tell ol' Barack that, no, I have other plans......... busy - - -
Face it, Bush was a lousy president, but Obama may even end up making Carter look good......... and this future "share the blame" photo-op thing (yes, it will come...) might be a good opportunity for Dubya to get across a message to Obama to simply "Stuff It!!!!"
Ed| 2.10.09 @ 11:39AM
Paul Krugman, wasn't he a financial advisor to Enron? Figures he'd end up at the NYT. Add the two together and you get as much economic knowlege as Thomas Sowell has in his little toe.
Pingback| 2.10.09 @ 1:04PM
Well, it IS almost .06% bi-partisan | cynics and skeptics links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Philosopher | 2.10.09 @ 1:24PM
Obama’s lack of national political and executive experience made it a surety that he would make political-rookie mistakes- especially at the beginning of his term in office.
Instead of blinding us with his mythical, individual brilliance, we get a political mis-step that will haunt us for years to come. Why is it that such a ‘smart’ guy like Obama would turn over his first major piece of national leadership to a bunch of old school Socialist Democrats led by Pelosi and Reid?
The only way this travesty of big government spending (aka ‘Stimulus Plan’) can be righted is if the President…
Read the rest of this post:
http://pracphilosblog.wordpress.com/2009/02/09/obama’s-rookie-mistake-2/
Robert Rosencrans| 2.10.09 @ 1:24PM
http://www.dcexaminer.com/opinion/Stimulus-bill-funds-ACORN-despite-its-history-of-corruption-39288257.html
Stimulus bill funds ACORN despite its history of corruption
By Kristen Lopez Eastlick, OpEd Contributor
- 2/8/09
KEY DATA:
* ACORN could receive up to $4 billion under the economic stimulus legislation approved by the House of Representatives.
* ACORN has received an estimated $53 million in government funds since its founding in 1970.
* ACORN is under investigation in at least 14 states in connection with allegations of voter registration fraud in the 2008 campaign.
TAKE HOME:
ACORN claims to represent low-income workers but does not pay its own employees the minimum wage and in 1995 sued California for an exemption from its minimum wage requirement.
A multi-million dollar liberal non-profit activist conglomerate reportedly under federal investigation may get a big piece of the economic recovery stimulus pie now under consideration by Congress.
It’s the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now – the infamous ACORN.
That’s right. ACORN, the activist group that has been implicated in voter fraud and registration deception in at least 14 states may get the financial bailout it needs to pull off another round of schemes in the next election season.
Last fall, nearly every time ACORN was in the news the group’s credibility was -- rightfully and appropriately -- questioned. In the final weeks leading to the election, twice as many voters held a negative view of the group than a positive view.
But now that ACORN is receding from public view, it’s apparently counting on the economic crisis and its friends in Congress to refill its coffers with up to $4 billion in aid.
Many people are already familiar with ACORN’s dubious pretension as a get-out-the-vote organization. It’s alleged that of the 1.3 million registration cards it “got out to vote” in this election, about a third turned out to be faked.
But ACORN’s close relationship with fraud is nothing new. In fact, it’s chronic.
In 2003, 63 percent of voter registration cards submitted by ACORN in St. Louis were invalid. In 2005, ACORN submitted as many as 3,000 potentially bogus signatures on a minimum wage ballot in Albuquerque.
Last year, election workers found that only six of the 1,800 voter registrations the group submitted in Seattle were legitimate. Only six. The complete list of ACORN’s incriminating voter-drives could fill this page, let alone a book.
These activists don’t care much about voter integrity for a simple reason: increasing voter turnout is merely a means to an end—a highly partisan end.
For evidence of this, look no further than the first sentence of an October 2003 strategy memo written for the group’s local political action committee. In it, ACORN makes clear that it was sponsoring a minimum wage initiative in Florida to manipulate “Democratic turnout in a close election,” in order to “help defeat George W. Bush and other Republicans.”
Lifelong Democrat Joe Johnson resigned from his leadership position at the Florida campaign, telling reporters “there were efforts to try to inform people that this was nonpartisan, when, in fact, it was not.”
ACORN postures as a worker’s advocate. Yet the group failed to pay its own employees the minimum wage. What’s more, in 1995 ACORN sued the state of California, seeking an exemption from the minimum wage law so it could legally pay under that rate.
Hypocritical? Yes. But hardly a surprise. It’s utterly consistent with the group’s decades-old pattern of abusing its way to political power.
ACORN confirmed it cannot be trusted when it was revealed that founder Wade Rathke may have concealed his brother’s embezzlement of nearly a million dollars from ACORN and its affiliates in 1999 and 2000.
The fraud, corruption, and rank hypocrisy of ACORN is breathtaking. And the degree to which the group gets away with it is inexcusable.
David| 2.10.09 @ 1:45PM
It was revealed yesterday by Bloomberg that the spending bill has numerous provisions related to the federal government taking over many health care decisions for all of us. It establishes some kind of czar or coordinator that apparently will have all power to do as that new agency determines is the best for us - i.e., rationing of health care.
Come on Repubs, you should have exposed this chicanery, not Bloomberg. You guys voted on the flippin' bill. Instead of the Republicans running around talking about the pork in the bill, why haven't you let everyone know about this attempt to take over health care? It seems no one knows how those health care provisions got into the bill. How is it that the Republicans let Obama get away without addressing this slimy but very important matter in his first press conference last night. Obama and the Democrats should be made to answer for their slime-ball tactics. I am disgusted with the Republicans for letting them get away with it, and for not bringing it to the voters' attention.
Ronnie Reagan| 2.10.09 @ 2:01PM
I wish Bush were prez again, not this Negro. Or, I wish it was 1985 again! Ah, the good ol' days.
Pingback| 2.10.09 @ 2:07PM
The Stimulus Package is not designed to save the economy, it’s designed to save liber links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
el gordo| 2.10.09 @ 3:02PM
Wait! You mean Democrats need half a decade to "fix" the economy? At the same time they are telling us that it took Bush just 7 years to
1) overcome the downturn he inherited plus the effects of 9/11
2) get the economy roaring from 2003 to 2007, unemployment sometimes under 5%,
3) and after all that, wreck it so comprehensively - and with Democrats in control of the House and Senate! - that they cannot put it back together again within 4 years?
Whatta guy, that Bush. Freaking evil genius, getting poor Obama in such a tight spot. Where can we find another guy like him?
Jeremiah| 2.10.09 @ 3:07PM
Klein piece above is cynical and argued in bad faith. Obama is attempting to clean up a terrible mess left by Bush and his anti-regulation cronies.
I'd prefer a better package than the one we've got, and there's plenty of room for disagreement, but the ad hominem attacks and speculation about Obama's supposedly corrupt motives are just not persuasive at all -- nor are they interesting. Once you have Hannity and Limbaugh and Palin claiming Obama is all but a terrorist, these kinds of pieces just fall flat.
Jeremiah| 2.10.09 @ 3:09PM
Ronnie Reagan --
The racism underpinning your post suggests you are an ignorant fool. Grow up, dude.
Anthony| 2.10.09 @ 3:39PM
Ah Jeremiah is back in the saddle, riding high, sort of speak. Just what about the criticism of the pork and acorn bill don't you like J? And how about those health care provisions slipped in quietly and silently. Gee, J. doesn't that just make you sigh for the good ole days with Mr. Sinister Cheney behind the curtin? I'd be careful about your support for this bill if I were you, Obama might have nurse Ratchet ration your electro-shock therapy. Oh, and J., the real anti-regulatory cronies were Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, as Fannie & Freddie, under Raines, Gorelick & Mudd were allowed to go wild. You do remember this, don't you, or don't those generics do the job for you?
Dustoff| 2.10.09 @ 3:56PM
Sure wish I could get a "sweet" deal like Chris Dodd did.
What about you Jeremiah?
Robert Rosencrans| 2.10.09 @ 4:12PM
Article on stealth government takeover of YOUR health care.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mccaughey&sid=aLzfDxfbwhzs
The bill’s health rules will affect “every individual in the United States” (445, 454, 479). Your medical treatments will be tracked electronically by a federal system. Having electronic medical records at your fingertips, easily transferred to a hospital, is beneficial. It will help avoid duplicate tests and errors.
But the bill goes further. One new bureaucracy, the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, will monitor treatments to make sure your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective. The goal is to reduce costs and “guide” your doctor’s decisions (442, 446). These provisions in the stimulus bill are virtually identical to what Daschle prescribed in his 2008 book, “Critical: What We Can Do About the Health-Care Crisis.” According to Daschle, doctors have to give up autonomy and “learn to operate less like solo practitioners.”
Keeping doctors informed of the newest medical findings is important, but enforcing uniformity goes too far.
New Penalties
Hospitals and doctors that are not “meaningful users” of the new system will face penalties. “Meaningful user” isn’t defined in the bill. That will be left to the HHS secretary, who will be empowered to impose “more stringent measures of meaningful use over time” (511, 518, 540-541)
What penalties will deter your doctor from going beyond the electronically delivered protocols when your condition is atypical or you need an experimental treatment? The vagueness is intentional. In his book, Daschle proposed an appointed body with vast powers to make the “tough” decisions elected politicians won’t make.
The stimulus bill does that, and calls it the Federal Coordinating Council for Comparative Effectiveness Research (190-192). The goal, Daschle’s book explained, is to slow the development and use of new medications and technologies because they are driving up costs. He praises Europeans for being more willing to accept “hopeless diagnoses” and “forgo experimental treatments,” and he chastises Americans for expecting too much from the health-care system.
Elderly Hardest Hit
Daschle says health-care reform “will not be pain free.” Seniors should be more accepting of the conditions that come with age instead of treating them. That means the elderly will bear the brunt.
Medicare now pays for treatments deemed safe and effective. The stimulus bill would change that and apply a cost- effectiveness standard set by the Federal Council (464).
The Federal Council is modeled after a U.K. board discussed in Daschle’s book. This board approves or rejects treatments using a formula that divides the cost of the treatment by the number of years the patient is likely to benefit. Treatments for younger patients are more often approved than treatments for diseases that affect the elderly, such as osteoporosis.
In 2006, a U.K. health board decreed that elderly patients with macular degeneration had to wait until they went blind in one eye before they could get a costly new drug to save the other eye. It took almost three years of public protests before the board reversed its decision.
Hidden Provisions
If the Obama administration’s economic stimulus bill passes the Senate in its current form, seniors in the U.S. will face similar rationing. Defenders of the system say that individuals benefit in younger years and sacrifice later.
The stimulus bill will affect every part of health care, from medical and nursing education, to how patients are treated and how much hospitals get paid. The bill allocates more funding for this bureaucracy than for the Army, Navy, Marines, and Air Force combined (90-92, 174-177, 181).
Hiding health legislation in a stimulus bill is intentional. Daschle supported the Clinton administration’s health-care overhaul in 1994, and attributed its failure to debate and delay. A year ago, Daschle wrote that the next president should act quickly before critics mount an opposition. “If that means attaching a health-care plan to the federal budget, so be it,” he said. “The issue is too important to be stalled by Senate protocol.”
More Scrutiny Needed
On Friday, President Obama called it “inexcusable and irresponsible” for senators to delay passing the stimulus bill. In truth, this bill needs more scrutiny.
The health-care industry is the largest employer in the U.S. It produces almost 17 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Yet the bill treats health care the way European governments do: as a cost problem instead of a growth industry. Imagine limiting growth and innovation in the electronics or auto industry during this downturn. This stimulus is dangerous to your health and the economy.
(Betsy McCaughey is former lieutenant governor of New York and is an adjunct senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. The opinions expressed are her own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Betsy McCaughey at Betsymross@aol.com
stmichrick| 2.10.09 @ 4:51PM
The healthcare provisions of the stimulo/pork bill are indeed the most sinister to citizens who appreciate freedom.
Does anyone think Senator Kennedy is 'accepting his condition' (a la Daschle) and being denied care?
Anthony| 2.10.09 @ 5:19PM
Hmmm, so our medical records and treatments will be tracked electronically, so where are all the hand wringing civil libertarians on this? Checking out the prayer rugs at GITMO? Where's the ACLU? Where's the FISA court when you need it? Where's Schumer and Leahy on all this domestic serveillance? Oh yeah, didn't that concerned libertarian pompus moron, Spector, vote for this? Former Tzar Daschle is quite right, the issue is too important for public debate. What do we think this is, a representative republic? Haven't you all read the new and improved living and breathing Constitution? You learned well at Club Senate, Mr. Daschle." Let them eat generics, providing they're not too old." BTW Tom, have you read any good books lately? Perhaps a re-read of the Dicken's favorite, "A Tale of Two Cities", as I remember, it's a real page turner.
Pingback| 2.10.09 @ 6:30PM
Obama News Conference a Snore | Axis of Right links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
DaveinPhoenix| 2.10.09 @ 9:46PM
"Obama is attempting to clean up a terrible mess left by Bush and his anti-regulation cronies"
-So the Democratic congress which has been in charge for quite awhile now has no responsibility for the current mess ? The list of Republican congressmen and women who warned the nation (and Democratic congressional leadership) of the impending disaster as early as 2001 is nearly endless.
-- In 2001, the Bush Adminstration tried to raise a red flag about Fannie and Freddie.
-- In 2005, 19 Republicans sign on to radically revise Fannie and Freddie, demanding oversight.
-- In 2005, a Republican reform passed the Senate Banking Committee on a party-line vote, only to be blocked by Democrats from passing the full Senate.
-- In 2006, John McCain spoke on the Senate floor concerning the need to reform Fannie and Freddie.
Nice try, stupid Jeremiah. Go re-write American history in one of your loved communist countries.
pete| 2.11.09 @ 12:19AM
Dave,
An excellent rebuttal to the revisionist fool Jeremiah. The denial of the democrat duplicity in the banking failure would be laughable if it weren't for the stupidity of the messiah's minions.
Pingback| 2.11.09 @ 8:21AM
Greatest Hits: Feb. 11, 2009 - Whatever Is Right links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 2.11.09 @ 8:47PM
Ed Driscoll » Robert Reich Runs The Red’s Queen’s Race links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 4.24.09 @ 8:13PM
Obama’s stimulus… « Time for Thorns links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
hgjhg| 11.24.09 @ 9:10PM
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