All politics isn’t local. Early results in the East interest because they provide clues to how races in the West will likely go. I’ll pay attention to whether Mike Lawler can beat Sean Patrick Maloney in New York-17 (a district the incumbent Democrat picked for himself), Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc can beat Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, Republican Lee Zeldin can upset Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York, and the extremely likeable Tudor Dixon can triumph over the quite unlikeable Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan. If even a couple of these blue offices flip red, then the omens look good for Republicans nationally.
FiveThirtyEight, the site that gave Hillary Clinton a 79 percent chance of winning the presidency on Election Day in 2016, handicaps the 2022 midterms as the Republicans holding a 55 59 percent chance of capturing the Senate and an 83 84 percent chance of winning the House. The GOP boost over the last hours reeks of pollsters looking to cover their tracks. Larry Sabato predicts a 51-49 Republican Senate, with Herschel Walker going over the top and Dr. Mehmet Oz winning in Pennsylvania (but Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt losing) and the GOP picking up 24 seats in the House.
Republicans +3 in the Senate and +30 in the House. A less bold prediction: election denying becomes fashionable once again.
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