Barring a massive breakdown in public polling or some other unforseen event, a Republican will win the special congressional election in NY-9. When the Democrats won in NY-26, scandal, a third party challenger on the right, and other mitigating circumstances were thrown out the window in favor of the idea that the election was a pure referendum on Paul Ryan’s plan for Medicare. To be sure, the Ryan plan was a factor in the result. But it was just one.
So will the NY-9 result be a referendum on President Obama, gay marriage, and other national issues? Or will it just be about Anthony Weiner? Somehow I have a feeling it will depend on how accurate those polls were.