Republicans have been on a roll in the redistricting wars as of late. However, some Republican state legislators in many states appear to be wary of fully pressing their new advantages. In doing so, they threaten to leave winnable congressional districts that could decide the majority on the table.
After it seemed like the issue had been fought to a draw, Florida passed a new congressional map that could extend its GOP edge to 24–4, up from 20–8 on the prior map. Then, Virginia’s proposed redrawn map that would likely elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican was thrown out by the state Supreme Court, which reverted the commonwealth to its current 6–5 map. And finally, the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision in Louisiana v. Callais ended the requirement that many southern states retain Democratic seats.
All in all, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia estimates that Republicans will net somewhere between six and 10 seats in the House of Representatives. They say that while “this is a redistricting deficit that we favor Democrats to overcome,” it could be enough for the GOP to “save their House majority under the right circumstances.” (RELATED: Republicans Set to Best Democrats in Mid-Decade Redistricting War)
Two additional seats out of Indiana would have also been very helpful for the GOP. But the Republican caucus of the Indiana state Senate had other ideas and blocked a bill that would have shifted Indiana’s delegation from the current 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats to a 9–0 map. Consequently, President Donald Trump and national Republicans rallied and successfully primaried six out of the eight anti-redistricting GOP state senators who were up for reelection in 2026. (RELATED: What Happened in Indiana Wasn’t a Win for Trump. It Was a Win for the People.)
While Indiana won’t be able to redraw until 2028, there are other solidly Republican states that have room to eliminate Democratic districts. In Tennessee, for example, the GOP almost immediately redrew the Memphis-based 9th district, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, into a deeply GOP seat.
And yet, many other red state Republicans don’t seem to have gotten the memo. Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina all voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024 and have, between them, five Democratic-leaning congressional districts. All of them could easily be eliminated if there were the political will to do so.
The political will, though, seems to be somewhat lacking. It seems two or even three Democratic-leaning seats may survive in these states due to Republicans being unwilling to pass maps that maximize GOP strength.
Louisiana is the prime example. The victorious party in the Callais decision, the state currently has two Democratic-leaning seats: the New Orleans-based 2nd District and the 6th District, which snakes across much of the center of the state to take in Democratic-leaning areas. On May 14, the Louisiana State House approved a map that would make the 6th District Republican-leaning, but largely left the 2nd District intact. Assuming the proposed map passes the state senate, it will need to be signed into law by Gov. Jeff Landry. (RELATED: ‘Right Here, Right Now’)
It would be trivially easy to make all six of Louisiana’s districts favorable for the GOP, but for whatever reason, the plan is to let Democrats keep one seat. Landry did not respond to a request for comment from The American Spectator. Neither did Sen. Bill Cassidy, who is seeking reelection this year, nor did John Fleming, Louisiana’s treasurer, who is challenging Cassidy. Rep. Julia Letlow, who is also running against Cassidy in the GOP primary for Senate and has President Trump’s endorsement, told The American Spectator, “I trust Governor Landry, Attorney General Murrill, and our legislature to deliver the fair, constitutional maps Louisiana deserves. What hasn’t changed is this: the U.S. Senate race is still on the May 16 ballot, and every Louisiana Republican voter deserves to have their voice heard. Get out and vote. Let’s send a conservative, Trump-endorsed Senator to Washington who will always put Louisiana first.”
Like Louisiana, Alabama also has two Democratic congressional districts. Also, like Louisiana, they appear set to only make one of them GOP-leaning. There, at least, some influential voices are pushing more aggressively to eliminate both current Democratic seats. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, for instance, posted on X that he wished to “put the Legislature in position to draw a map that favors Republicans 7-0.”
Somewhat more vaguely, Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor in the 2026 election and is widely considered to be the frontrunner, exclusively told The American Spectator, “Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court delivered a HUGE win for Alabama voters by ruling that you can’t redistrict by race — but you CAN redistrict based on politics. More than 65 percent of Alabamians voted for President Trump in the last election and Alabama doesn’t have a single Democrat statewide elected office. If you head up the East Coast, there are states where 40 percent of voters are Republicans and have zero representation. That’s not right. I’m glad to see the Supreme Court do the right thing and look forward to Alabama having elected officials that accurately reflect the state’s politics and values.”
And it’s not just those states. South Carolina State Sen. Majority Leader Shane Massey, a Republican, gave a 47-minute speech before voting no on a proposal to call the state Senate back into session. Massey was joined by four other Republicans, which was enough for Democrats to block the special session from being called. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster is expected to use his authority to call a special session himself.
Why so many elected Republicans are intransigent about protecting Democratic congressional representation seems inexplicable. Especially when they’re willing to sacrifice their careers over it. And after the example set by Indiana, there’s no question that is what they’re doing. Combined, these states are leaving more potential Republican House gains on the field than the Indiana Republicans that drew Trump’s wrath.
It may be that voters are so fed up with the GOP this November that Democrats will inevitably romp back to power, regardless of what lines are drawn or what maps are used. But in anything close to a near-run thing, a small number of seats could make a very big difference.
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