Earlier this morning the Census Bureau announced the new distribution of Congressional seats among the states following the 2010 Census, and based on recent history, the shift would seem to benefit Republicans when it comes to presidential elections.
The Census found that traditionally Republican states gained more population over the past decade than states that have typically been Democratic strongholds.
States that have gone Republican in all three elections gained a total of eight seats (Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and Utah) and lost two (Louisiana and Missouri) for a net gain of six seats. By contrast, states that have gone consistently Democratic gained just one seat in Washington, but lost seven (Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York) for a net loss of six seats. That’s an overall net change of 12 seats favoring Republicans.
Among the remaining states that have swung over the course of the last three elections, Florida and Nevada gained a combined three seats, while Iowa and Ohio lost three.
If the new allocation of Congressional seats had been around during this past decade, George Bush would have gained a net of 14 electoral votes over Al Gore and 12 votes over John Kerry. In 2008, John McCain would have also gained a net of 14 over Barack Obama.
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