When assessing the impact of any war on Israel, it is essential to keep in mind two huge differences between the two countries: America’s vastly greater population and geographic area. Consider:
Let’s take a look at not only the current conflict but the prospective conflict between Israel and Iran. (READ MORE: Israel’s 9-11: What Now?)
In a recent article, “The Gathering Middle Eastern Storm: Israel’s Dilemma,” I compared Iran to Israel by these measures. As Iran is the main supplier of Hamas weaponry, we can start with what I recently published as to relative vulnerability, based upon population and area figures — as of July 2023 (not changed to the later figures I use above) — of the two countries:
[G]eography portends a vast difference for geostrategic vulnerability to a nuclear strike. Consider these projected world area, population, and population-density figures, as of July, from the U.S. Census Bureau’s U.S. and World Population Clock (for U.S. figures) and U.N. population division data (for international figures) reported by Worldometer: Israel’s 9.1 million people (it ranks 100th among all nations) are crammed into a space that is almost exactly the same size as New Jersey, which has 9.3 million. The U.S. population, ranked third behind China and India, is now 335 million, 37 times that of Israel. Iran’s population size ranks 18th worldwide, with 84 million, roughly 9 times Israel’s.
Comparative areas (in square kilometers) are 9.1 million for the U.S., 1.6 million for Iran, 22,600 for New Jersey, and 21,640 for Israel. Iran’s area is 99.4 percent of the combined areas of France, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Population densities per square kilometer are 36 per square km for the U.S., 52 per square km. for Iran, and 400 per square km for Israel; Israel’s population density is thus roughly 8 times Iran’s and 11 times America’s. Israel — far smaller and far more densely populated — is vastly more vulnerable to nuclear attack. Put into national security terms, it lacks spatial — i.e., geostrategic — depth.
Now, on to Israel’s current crisis — thankfully, with no nuclear use to be factored in — as of 10 p.m. Monday afternoon, local time (Israel is on GMT+3).
After two days, the casualty tally in a war that began at 6:30 a.m. Saturday is 1,000 dead and 2,500 wounded. Applying the population yardstick for Israel given above and casting it in U.S. per capita terms would equate to 37,000 Americans dead, with 92,500 wounded nationwide. This translates into 129,500 total U.S. per capita equivalent casualties — in the first 60 hours. (READ MORE: There Is No ‘Moral Equivalence’ Now)
For the area yardstick in our comparison, we use Israel’s actual losses for New Jersey, as the area overlay of Israel and New Jersey are almost exactly identical. All these numbers are bound to dramatically increase over the duration of the war, which likely will last at a minimum several months. It is even very possible that months could become years, given multiple complex military and intel challenges.
Finally, we should then ask ourselves two questions:
We must support Israel in its retaliatory campaign to the full extent that we would use force were America to suffer the per capita U.S. casualty equivalents. This must include direct, decisive action against Iran, clearly the planning architect and chief supplier of Hamas for this war.
John Wohlstetter is author of Sleepwalking With the Bomb (Discovery Institute Press, 2d. ed. 2014).
