On Sunday, the U.S. and Iran struck a deal stopping military hostilities, lifting the U.S. naval blockade on Iran, extending the ceasefire by 60 days to negotiate Iran’s nuclear program, and allowing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the deal is signed in Geneva this Friday.
Markets responded to the possible deal, with oil prices falling from $100 to $83.
However, hurdles remain for the peace agreement. Chief among them: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic pressure from Israelis who are disavowing this agreement on the grounds it does not adequately dismantle Iran’s regime.
The 60 days of negotiation are contingent upon the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets. Additionally, Iran wants Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. These are both terms Israelis find deeply distressing. They fear Iran could use this money for nefarious purposes and believe that withdrawal from Lebanon would severely deter Israel’s mission of disconnecting Iran from Hezbollah.
Israel’s objective in Lebanon has been to dismantle Hezbollah, the terrorist group, and to weaken it to the point where it cannot pose a significant threat to Northern Israel. Daniel Estrin from NPR explained that Israel does not want to withdraw from the territory it has secured because it believes leaving would only give Hezbollah the upper hand and jeopardize the safety of Israel.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir asserted, “Trump’s agreement does not bind us,” while Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “We will not compromise on Israel’s security interests and the protection of our citizens, and we will not withdraw from the security zones … if Iran attacks Israel because of the events in Lebanon, we will strike it with full force.”
Israelis are calling this deal a major failure on the part of Netanyahu; Opposition leader Yair Lapid said, “The time has come for us to recognize the fact that Netanyahu simply cannot do it anymore.” He continued expressing his disappointment, saying, “an American president openly and publicly telling the prime minister of Israel: ‘I am your boss, and you will do what you are told.’”
Trump commented to Axios, “Why did Bibi have to do a f*** attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f***ing judgement. I let him know that.”
The U.S. and Israel entered this conflict together in late February with the united interest of crushing the Iranian regime and addressing security threats.
The current deal on the table does not resemble the vision Israelis had in mind when getting into this conflict, and they are now fighting to ensure the protection of their safety.
However, Trump is continuing with the deal, as it will be signed in Switzerland. Tehran hasn’t made it known who will be attending the ceremony, and Israeli officials are not expected to come.
