House Republicans have a chance to break their recent streak of special-election losses with back-to-back wins in May. With two Democrats on the ballot in Hawaii’s May 22 mail-in election, a Republican could win with a plurality:
Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai’i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district.
Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. . . .
The poll, taken for The Advertiser and Hawai’i News Now, confirms fears among Democrats that Case and Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote in the winner-take-all election and help Djou score a rare Republican upset. . . .
While many local Democrats believe a Djou victory would be only temporary — Case or Hanabusa will have another chance to take the seat in the November general election — national Democrats have warned about the negative message of a loss in Obama’s hometown district.
Steven Foley at the Minority Report got video of Djou at last week’s candidates forum. Meanwhile, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released Friday shows Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 46-40% in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, where the special election is May 18 to fill the seat of the late Jack Murtha. Following up on Friday’s article, I’ve got a special report on the PA12 campaign at Hot Air.