Are We Officially in Cold War II? - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Are We Officially in Cold War II?
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The prolific historian and Hoover Institution Fellow Niall Ferguson gave a tutorial about our new cold war with China on the Hoover Institution’s web series Uncommon Knowledge, which is hosted by Peter Robinson. Ferguson compared Cold War II with Cold War I and concluded that Cold War II will be much more dangerous for the United States than Cold War I — and in Cold War II, unlike Cold War I, the United States may lose. (READ MORE: G7 and China–Central Asia Summits Show Two Opposing Directions for the World)

Ferguson is the author of acclaimed books on the First World War (The Pity of War), the Second World War (The War of the World), a history of the British Empire (Empire), and is completing the second volume of his magnificent biography of Henry Kissinger. He told Robinson that Kissinger, who just turned 100, also believes that we are in the early stages of a cold war with China. 

A Second Ideological Rivalry

Both cold wars, Ferguson notes, combined geopolitical and ideological rivalries. The Chinese Communist Party, like the old Soviet party, is a Marxist–Leninist regime committed to the worldwide triumph of socialism over capitalism. The United States and the West won Cold War I, in part due to our economic and technological superiority over the stagnant Soviet system. In a very real sense, our Cold War victory over the Soviets was an economic victory. President Ronald Reagan understood that the Soviet Union was in a systemic crisis and he pursued policies in the 1980s that put further strains on that system. We have no such superiority in these realms vis-à-vis China in Cold War II. We are not in a position where we can outspend China into collapse the way we did against the Soviet Union. 

A More Advanced Enemy

Ferguson warns that Cold War II may not be as protracted as Cold War I — which lasted 45 years. “China,” he remarked, “is a far more formidable adversary than the Soviet Union was.” And Taiwan is the major flashpoint in Cold War II, and, if we are not careful and prudent, Taiwan could become an “American Suez.” That refers to Britain’s failure in the 1956 Suez Crisis, which demonstrated that Britain was no longer a global power. Should China gain control of Taiwan — either peaceably or by force against U.S. opposition, it would signal that America is no longer the world’s leading power. 

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0

We are in the early stages of Cold War II, Ferguson says, but many Americans don’t want to acknowledge it. The war in Ukraine, Ferguson claims, is like the Korean War in Cold War I. “The war in Ukraine is the first hot war of Cold War II,” Ferguson says. He believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a “green light” to invade Ukraine and will continue to support Russia in that war. Taiwan, Ferguson argues, could become the Cuban Missile Crisis of Cold War II, only this time we are the Soviets and China is the U.S. in relation to Taiwan. China can impose a naval blockade, and the United States would face the decision of whether or not to attempt to run the blockade. Ferguson agrees with former Trump Pentagon official Elbridge Colby that the more resources the U.S. puts into the Ukraine war, the fewer resources it will be able to devote to defending Taiwan if China blockades or attacks the island.

How the U.S. Can Avoid Confrontation

Ferguson believes that the United States needs to continue to support Ukraine, while simultaneously investing now in attaining the capability to deter China from attacking or invading Taiwan. But we need time to do that. We should make every reasonable effort to avoid a clash with China over Taiwan in the near future because time is on our side. China has both economic and demographic problems that over the long run will weaken its power.

But he fears that the Biden administration is determined not only to spend less on defense than is needed (“when a superpower is spending more in debt service than defense … its days are numbered”), but also for political reasons to portray MAGA Republicans, rather than the CCP, as the existential threat to America. Our most difficult times during Cold War I were when America was internally divided over Vietnam and the Soviets took advantage of those divisions. (READ MORE: Reports of China’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated)

And Ferguson credits the Nixon–Kissinger policy of detente with buying America time to get its house in order, which it finally did when the Reagan administration devised and implemented policies to win Cold War I. The United States, Ferguson says, “should be buying time right now and not racing for a showdown over an island that is a long way from the United States and very close to China.”

The lesson of the two world wars and Cold War I for Ferguson is: “You have to invest in deterrence. It’s cheaper than fighting a world war, that’s the lesson in British history, Americans need to learn it.”

READ MORE:

Who Is Afraid of the New Cold War?

The Mirage of Détente With China Lives On

China’s Leading Ideologist: Wang Huning

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