You’d never know it if you relied on the media but there are things going on in the world other than the Iran war.
The Iran war deserves to be at the top of our news pyramid but there are other things — such as the Israeli war with Hizballah and the Russian war of conquest in Ukraine — that deserve nearly equal attention.
The off-again-on-again negotiations with Iran seem to be off again. President Trump announced on Saturday that his envoys — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — would stay home for a while. They remain on call for another session — as fruitless as that will be — with the Iranians.
While Iran had seized a couple of cargo ships last week, the Strait of Hormuz is under a U.S. naval blockade. Nothing goes into or out of Iran without the Navy’s permission.
Americans, Israelis, and Ukrainians are all tired of war. But they are democracies and are faced with opponents who are both fanatic and envious of their enemies.
As we have learned from the 47-year history of the ayatollahs’ regime, we can judge nothing by what they say. Only their actions count.
That raises the question this column mentioned last week. How long can the U.S. Navy sustain the blockade?
For quite a long time as blockades go. Our ships and sailors can sustain the blockade for months or even years as the ships are rotated home for crew rest and ship repair.
The question boils down to how long can Iran sustain its economy and who is in charge of everything with both Ayatollah Khamenei dead and his son either dead or severely injured.
The Iranian economy is in shambles with prices up about 90 percent over the past several months with a concomitant depression of its currency. With no oil income and nothing else coming in through the Strait, Iran can only remain as it is as long as fanatics rule there unless there is a popular uprising to overthrow the regime.
The problem is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its commander, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, are fanatics. They are apparently in control of Iran and — like all fanatics — have to be clearly defeated or killed. Mr. Trump’s decision to not overthrow the regime means that the IRGC will be in control of Iran and its so-called diplomacy for a very long time.
Diplomacy never works with Iran. The president has said that he wants “unconditional surrender” from Iran. He won’t get it.
The other wars — the Ukraine conflict and the Israeli war with Hizballah — are still going on.
There is a cease-fire in the Israel-Hizballah war. Both sides accuse the other of violating its terms. Some prominent Lebanese want their country rid of Hizballah but they have little say in the matter. Hizballah may still be receiving munitions from Iran but that supply line is threatened by both the Israelis and the US. But, again, the Hizballah terrorists are fanatics.
No matter how long the U.S. and Israel try to inflict damage on Hizballah’s supply lines, it will try to resurge and Iran will be eager to help. On another front, Hamas in the Gaza Strip is ready to be re-elected to power. It has not disarmed nor do the Israelis appear able to conquer what is left of Hamas. Hamas, of course, is another Iranian proxy force ready to receive more arms from Iran if Iranians can manage to resupply it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is going on but appears to be stalemated. Minor gains are made by each side with extensive drone attacks but neither Russia or Ukraine is apparently able to strike with decisive results.
A few days ago, Russia struck Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, with about 660 drones. Last week, the European Union lent Kyiv about $100 billion which is intended to keep Ukraine afloat for another year. It’s probably not enough. There is no strategy to end this war, although Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he’s ready for peace talks. But Mr. Putin is not. He has never moved off of his position that Ukraine must, at least, give up its region around Donbas.
Russia has made it a policy to kill innocent civilians in this war. They have probably killed at least 40 or 50 thousand civilians. It is a little interesting that the International Criminal Court has not filed any charges against Putin and his military leaders. The ICC reserves that for Israel.
Islamic nations and their proxy forces make poor partners for peace because they cannot be believed. Russia does its best to emulate their behavior.
Americans, Israelis, and Ukrainians are all tired of war. But they are democracies and are faced with opponents who are both fanatic and envious of their enemies. There can be no peace with the Russians, Iranians, Hamas, or Hizballah unless they are defeated, the prospects of which are not at all possible.
READ MORE from Jed Babbin:
The Limits of the Bombing Pause
The Illusion of Victory: Trump, Iran, and the Limits of Military Power
